Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

1. Minor Heat Risk over this week. Temperatures warm today and Tuesday before another cooldown midweek.

2. Temperatures warm up a bit this coming weekend.

3. Dry conditions will remain for the next week.

DISCUSSION

Today was yet another beautiful day. The kind of day where the windows can get left open almost all day and everyone will be happy. This forecaster certainly was. What's exciting is that Tuesday looks to be another repeat of today. Maximum temperatures are right about normal, which is to say the low 90s. In fact, the Central Valley has a 40-50% chance of temperatures exceeding 93 degrees. Temperatures are not expected to exceed 94 degrees, as the probability drops to 20-40%, mainly following along the I-5. Dare I say, this will be perfect weather to enjoy a coffee on the patio.

Come the middle of the week, the CWA will see temperatures fall below normal by a few degrees. We're back to the 80s! There's good agreement with the ensemble models that a trough will be dipping into Northern California. This'll bring temperatures down and to the mid to high 80s, which is about 5 degrees below normal. The coolest day this week is on track to be Thursday, as there is only a 10-15% for the Central Valley to greater than 90 degrees. As the trough moves in, it will bring some isolated gusty (up 35 mph) conditions towards the northern portion of the CWA. As such, a Lake Wind Advisory will be in effect Wednesday evening into Thursday night. The usual problem spots too, will be gusty, but not exceeding advisory levels.

To round out this week, the slightest bit of ridging is expected. The weekend will be a bit warmer, but nothing too hot for the the end of September. Saturday, temperatures will stay below 95 degrees, as there's a 10-20% chance for the valley to exceed that threshold, save for a few spots along the I-5 and up near Los Banos/San Luis Reservoir. Sunday, however, looks to be the warmest day. There's a 40-50% chance for temperatures to exceed 95 degrees on Sunday. Even though that's a bit warmer than the low 90s, the Climate Prediction Center has most of California in a near normal for temperatures in their 6-10 day outlook and again in their 8-10 day outlook.

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to midnight PDT Tuesday night for CAZ300.