Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat building this week with temperatures in the upper 90s/100s and heat indices of 104-112F. Heat Advisories likely at times during the upcoming work week.

- Patchy fog possible during the early to mid-morning hours for at least the next few days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

A strong ridge of high pressure building over the Southern Plains will bring hot conditions all week long with dangerous heat possible during the afternoon hours. A combination of this high pressure, abnormally warm temperatures aloft, and daytime heating will give way to afternoon high temperatures near 100 degrees all week long for non-coastal areas. Temperatures may peak around 96-99 on Monday, but triple digit highs may begin to appear around highly urbanized areas by Tuesday with most inland locations reaching 100-103 degrees by Thursday. Add in the humidity and we will be seeing heat indicies around 105-108 degrees on Monday and then 106-110 (or higher) Tuesday through the end of the week. Urbanized areas (especially the Houston Metro) may see heat indices higher than 108 degrees on Monday for a couple hours during the afternoon. A Heat Advisory may be issued during later shifts for Monday if these higher heat indices are expected to be more widespread or hotter. The likelihood of a Heat Advisory become much higher by Tuesday as the dangerous heat become more widespread.

Rain chance remain near zero for much of this week thanks to increased subsidence from the dominating high pressure overhead. This high pressure is forecasted to slide westward by this weekend allowing for some shortwaves to slide down into East Texas along the eastern edge of the ridge. This would bring a return of rain chances by as early as Saturday afternoon and continue into the start of the following week. But, this is highly dependent on how far west the high pressure slides. If it stays further east, or is stronger, then the rain chances would also stay to our east.

Fowler

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Expect another cycle of isolated early morning MVFR cigs/vis outside the metro terminals, which burn off by mid morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. Isolated SH/TS possible for our coastal TAF sites with the afternoon sea breeze, but confidence remains too low to warrant a mention in the TAF.

JMG

MARINE

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Light to occasionally moderate southerly/southwesterly winds and 2-4 ft seas will prevail for most of this week. No significant weather concerns expected.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

HGX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.