Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect through early Tuesday evening for much of the area.

- Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the week, mainly along the coast. Rain likely along the coast Thursday.

- High temperatures will generally persist in the mid 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1113 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A broad upper low continues to spin over the Tennessee Valley bringing generally persistent weather to our area, with hot and humid conditions continuing through the week. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through early Tuesday evening. Heat indices up to 109F are possible during the daytime hours. Additional diurnal convection looks to develop during Tuesday morning and will track eastwards through the afternoon. Storms again will be isolated and look to be confined to the coast. Any storms late-morning should mostly stay south of the I-10 corridor, tapering off through the afternoon. After a quiet night, Wednesday will see similar conditions overall, however the timing of more widespread convection along the coast looks to return to the afternoon time frame with a few stray storms potentially moving into northern portions of the forecast area. In any case, these will not amount to much.

The aforementioned upper ridge will continue to shift eastward into Thursday. A surge of tropical moisture will accompany this with GFS PWATs in particular approaching an impressive 2.5". The latter would bring more favorable precipitation/convective parameters, however the former will make the cap much stronger and would inhibit storm development. The best precipitation chances will occur in the morning along the coast before the greatest capping develops during the afternoon/early evening hours and the aforementioned moisture surge moves west of our area. The ridge will become elongated from north to south over central Texas Friday into the weekend and become squeezed between a trough to the west and a closed low to the east. This should all yield minimal PoPs, although the heat and humidity will continue.

AVIATION

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1124 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Diurnal pattern continues as cloud decks once again lower to around 1500-2000ft overnight. These could briefly fill in to produce MVFR CIGS early Tuesday morning, mainly north of I-10. Isolated patchy fog will also be possible in spots during the early morning, mainly in fog prone locations like KCXO. CIGs/Fog should clear around or by the late morning hours. Showers/storms are also expected to develop over the coast early Tuesday morning, shifting inland during the afternoon. Any convection that does develop should tapper off into Tuesday evening.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1113 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Light SE onshore winds will continue in the near-term, peaking near 15 kts later tonight. Winds will back to a more due easterly direction on Wednesday and increase to 20 kts from east to west on Thursday, before slightly diminishing on Friday. Seas of 2 to 3 feet will persist through Wednesday, increasing to 4 to 6 feet on Thursday due to the aforementioned wind increase. These will subside into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

HGX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335-338.

GM...None.