Area Forecast Discussion

SYNOPSIS

A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce moderate to breezy trade winds through Monday with periods of showers favoring windward mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Hurricane Fausto remains on track to pass near the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday as a tropical storm. A drier and breezy trade wind weather pattern will return across the state from Thursday onward as Fausto drifts westward away from the Hawaiian Islands.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Minor adjustments to PoP were made to account for current trends. Previous forecast is on track.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 453 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2026

Trade winds driven by high pressure far northwest of Hawaii will continue through Tuesday. Incoming clouds and showers will primarily impact windward and mauka areas.

East of the state Hurricane Fausto continues to march west northwest. Fausto remains on a high confidence track, keeping the center of the storm and the highest impacts passing north of the state. Additionally, the environment ahead of Fausto grows more unfavorable on approach to the islands and we expect it to weaken into a tropical storm before arrival in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands. That said, we remain cautious at this stage that even subtle southern shifts in the track or delayed weakening trends may still produce changes to our island by island impacts. We strongly encourage the public to pay close attention to this passing storm system as weather impacts over the Hawaiian Islands early next week will likely evolve over time.

High confidence Fausto impacts...high surf possibly above warning thresholds for east facing shores from Monday through Tuesday. A High Surf Advisory is already in effect for east facing shores through Wednesday, with the possibility of an upgrade to a warning. Lesser confidence impacts include...strong winds to around 40 mph may develop near and north of the low center and possible heavy rain threats from Tuesday through Wednesday.

No time like the present to review your family hurricane preparedness plans, and ensure every household has at least a 14 day supply of food and water available if needed during this years active hurricane season.

A drier and more stable breezy trade wind pattern will fill in across the state from Thursday onward as Fausto continues to journey westward away from the Hawaiian Islands.

AVIATION

Breezy trades will weaken slightly and back towards the northeast tomorrow. Low cigs and SHRA over windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover into leeward areas. MVFR conds possible in heavier SHRA but VFR should prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of the smaller islands.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod low-level turb downwind of island terrain.

MARINE

Initially fresh to locally breezy trades will gradually shift to the NNE and diminish through the middle of the week in response to Hurricane Fausto passing north of the islands. The trades will then ramp back up to fresh and strong levels late this week into the weekend as Fausto continues off to the west-northwest away from the state, while strong high pressure builds north of the islands. A Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Monday afternoon for the windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island.

The current long-period south swell will continue to bring moderate to large surf through tonight before slowly declining Monday into Tuesday. The High Surf Advisory remains in effect through tonight for all south facing shores.

East facing shores will continue to support rough choppy surf due to the locally breezy trade winds. Additionally, nearshore buoys on the eastern side of the islands all have begun to show the long period forerunners of the new easterly swell. This moderate long period energy has promoted the High Surf Advisory for east facing shores through Wednesday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory may also be needed for seas greater than 10 feet for effected windward waters. Energy from Hurricane Fausto is expected to build and potentially reach High Surf Warning levels by Monday night through early Wednesday. After a brief lull late Wednesday through Thursday, east shore surf will trend back up Friday into the weekend due to a combination of rising trade wind swell and a new long period east swell associated with Tropical Storm Genevieve moving in.

A Coastal Flood statement may be needed during the peak of the large surf for vulnerable low-lying coastal roadways, docks, boat ramps, and other coastal infrastructure exposed to the large east swell too.

Surf along N shores could also see some brief increase as Fausto (or its remnants) pass near the region Tuesday and Wednesday, with north shore surf returning to typical flat to tiny levels late Wednesday into next weekend.

HFO WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Big Island South- Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro- Kahoolawe-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Molokai Leeward South-Niihau-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry- Waianae Coast.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Kauai East-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana- Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.