Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory issued for tonight. Fog chances continue through Tuesday morning.

- Chances for rain both today and Monday.

- Monday could bring some strong winds with gusts around 30-60 mph.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1243 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Current observations have broad upper troughing over the Western United States with ridging over the Southeastern United States. This continues to keep the area under southwest flow aloft. The upper shortwave has also moved over the area, limiting showers to the far eastern parts of the area. At the surface, we are dealing with more patchy fog. The fog currently is less consistent then other nights, likely due to a surface boundary with precipitation and insulation from mid to high level cloud cover. We do keep the southerly/easterly flow with a high to the southeast and a low to the northwest. This should help low clouds and fog develop across most of the area. However, the dense fog will likely be limited to locales near the Tri-State border with this area farther away from the rain. We've had reports of dense fog along the Nebraska border, so most counties along the border remain in a Dense Fog Advisory through 10am MT / 11am CT.

For the daytime hours, the area is forecast to be under cloud cover for most of the day. However, the area will be split into two. Counties along the Colorado border are forecast to at least briefly clear of cloud cover during the afternoon as the upper trough moves northeast and the surface low expands into some of the area. Temperatures would then warm into the 60s with the clearer skies. This part of the area likely would see no precipitation. The eastern part of the area (mainly along and west of a line from Benkelman, NE to Leoti, KS) would conversely see cloud cover through the day. Rain showers are also forecast to pass through, with chances higher the further east you area. This looks to be a combo of the low advancing and providing some forcing, along with saturated low and mid-levels. Instability continues to be forecast to be lacking, some rain totals would likely be below a few tenths of an inch. Temperatures are forecast to remain more in the 50s for this area.

Tonight, upper level ridging is forecast to push in and begin to reduce some of the mid and higher level cloud cover. That being said, there should still be plenty of cloud cover with continued low level southeasterly flow bring in moisture. Fog will also likely develop within the area with the moisture moving in. Dense fog is a tad bit more likely with the precipitation forecast to end and little change in the surface features to mess up the formation. Lows should again be in the 40s.

Sunday, any fog that had developed should slowly burn off through the morning and likely still be dense through much of the morning. Otherwise, the upper level southwesterly flow is forecast to return with the ridge likely shifting east and allowing for more mid to high level cloud cover to move over the area. This should limit temperatures to the 50s and 60s again. The main condition change is that the winds should strengthen as the upper trough over the west is forecast to deepen and move towards the area. As it does so, it should deepen the surface low to the west which would cause winds to reach 15-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Sunday night, I know this is shocking, but we have another chance for fog as long as the surface low doesn't push into the area fully. The continued southerly/southeasterly flow and ample moisture available would again allow for fog and dense fog to form. One of the main differences is that this fog may be short lived and dissipate close to sunrise. As alluded to, if the surface low pushes fully through, the low level flow would become more westerly and less favorable for fog. So western parts of the area may wake up to no fog and lesser cloud cover. The fog may also be disrupted in other parts of the area as the low provides some forcing for showers and maybe a storm to develop. But with the current rack favoring a more northerly path for the low center, the precipitation is forecast to initially be limited. As for temperatures, lows are again forecast to be in the upper 40s and 50s.

Monday brings a change of pace as the surface low pushes through along with a cold front. This will not only lead to an increase in the winds, but provide some precipitation chances with the front moving through a moist environment. Showers are more likely, due to the continued low instability and early passage. As for the wind, speeds are likely to reach 15-30 mph with the higher speeds in the west due to the earlier front passage. Gusts are currently forecast to be more around 30-50 mph with a few 60 mph gusts. The limiter is that the system is forecast to broaden and shift the center north, which should keep winds through most of the profile closer to 30-40 kts. There is about a 30% chance that a deepening and slower progression occurs which would allow wind gusts to be stronger with more frequent 50-60 mph gusts. Even so, this looks like it would be confined to the western half of the area if it did occur. Temperatures are forecast to be more in the 50s behind the cold front for the western half, with 60s for the eastern half.

Overnight Monday, there is more variance on the wind as how quickly the upper trough pushes east is in question, but winds should remain a bit elevated around 15-25 mph from the northwest. Fog and rain showers are forecast to continue with the moisture forecast to linger and no strong push of dry air yet. Dense fog chances would be lower with the unfavorable wind direction and stronger speeds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 221 AM MDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Next week starting on Tuesday and through Friday, we are forecast to be in a revolving upper-level trough and ridge pattern over the area. On Tuesday, it is expected that the trough system from the short-term period will slide east, bringing in a cold front, and putting us into northwesterly flow aloft as a de-amplifying ridge follows in from the souther Rockies on Wednesday. Once the ridge completely de-amplifies and flattens out over us, it would likely put us into zonal flow on Thursday. After this, a possible additional ridge could form in to the south and amplify to the north on Friday. With this being said, there is some marginal spread of uncertainty within the overall evolution of the pattern. While zonal flow is favored, GEFS ensemble spread shows some variability of the small trough on Thursday that could lead into slightly northwesterly flow before the ridge arrives Friday. There is low confidence (30%) that upper-level northwesterly flow will occur earlier on Thursday.

Afternoon temperatures for this long-term period continue to be fairly consistent with highs forecast to be in the 50s. However on Wednesday and onward, near freezing morning temperatures are expected to occur in the Tri-State border area. With the spread of the overall pattern later in the week, there is low confidence (20%) that temperatures could drop a few degrees into below freezing over the entire County Warning Area (CWA) if the pattern becomes northwesterly. Otherwise, morning lows will likely be in the 30s and slightly above freezing.

On Tuesday, showers and strong winds are expected to end once the initial trough system passes by. Showers are likely to exit out of the area before the mid afternoon hours with winds from the northwest decreasing from 30 mph to 10 mph. For the rest of the period, we can expect the winds to be calm and shift a couple of times with the changing pattern. Clouds should remain relatively low before possibly building back up on Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1146 PM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

For KGLD, IFR conditions are forecast to start the TAF period. Expect ceilings to generally be around 600-700 ft until 15Z, then ceilings should gradually lift to MVFR conditions. There could be some patchy dense fog until around 15Z. With the dense fog expect visibilities to be around 1/4-1/2 mile and ceilings around 100-200 ft, causing Airport Minimum conditions. Expect light south- southeasterly winds until 14-15Z. After 15Z, winds will likely pick up to 10-15 kts along with gusts around 25 kts.

For KMCK, LIFR conditions are forecast to start the TAF period. Expect ceilings to generally be around 200-600 ft for the period, keeping conditions at LIFR to IFR. Patchy dense fog could be possible until 15Z, reducing visibilities to around 1/4 mile creating Airport Minimum conditions. Beginning around 16Z, fog should have diminished and there should be a small reduction in ceilings. Winds will likely remain light and from the south- southeast. Around 10Z, winds will pick up to around 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts through the rest of the TAF period.

GLD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for KSZ001-002. CO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for COZ090. NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning for NEZ079>081.