Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- After an overall quiet day today, first round of precipitation chances will start working its way in this evening/overnight. Main chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms looks to be near/east of HWY 281. Severe weather is not expected.

- After a bit of a lull during the day on Friday, next upper level disturbance currently over the TX/NM/Mex area will slide into the area...bringing another bout of rain/storm chances.

- Scattered precip chances linger into the weekend (mainly Saturday)...with the potential for more widespread precipitation moving in Sun night into Mon-Tue with the arrival of a stronger upper level system. Still plenty of finer details to work out with timing/track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 413 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Currently through tonight...

Been an overall quiet day across the area today...though satellite imagery shows a stark contrast in sky cover from north to south. Low-level stratus that started working its way into the area late last night has remained stubbornly in place over southern half, keeping skies overcast...vs the northern half which has had no shortage of sun. Looking aloft, flow across the region remains west- southwesterly...with broad ridging over much of the southeastern CONUS, while a stronger area of low pressure is making its way into the Pac NW region. To our south-southwest, satellite imagery showing a shortwave disturbance making its way north through the TX/NM/Mex border region. The overall surface pattern is on the weaker side...the main frontal boundary is draped from WSW-ENE across central KS, with weak high pressure centered over the Dakotas. This has kept winds easterly across the area today, with speeds mainly 10- 15, with an occasional gust closer to 20 MPH. Western portions of north central KS have been struggling to even get to 60 today, rest of the area has been more in the mid 60s.

This evening and tonight...still have the potential for some precipitation to work it way NNE through the region, driven by increasing warm air/moisture advection as the low-level jet ramps up. Models not showing any overly strong LLJ, generally around 30kts, and even at this point still showing some differences with just how much coverage there ends up being. Expecting coverage to be on the scattered side of things...with models still focusing the better chances mainly near/east of HWY 281. Can't rule out some of this activity being thunderstorms with instability also building back north with time...and a stronger storm is not out of the question, but the overall threat for severe weather remains low.

Friday through the weekend...

Some of this activity from tonight may linger across especially eastern areas to start off the day on Friday...but most models show a lull between this round and the next working in later in the day. Really hasn't been any significant changes with models through Friday, with the main focus being that above mentioned upper level disturbance over TX/NM/Mex...which will continue trekking northward with time, roughly reaching into srn KS by evening. Still some differences between models with the timing of the main shield of precipitation reaching the southern edge of the forecast area...could be seeing at least scattered activity already by mid-late afternoon, with the better chances looking to focus mainly after 00Z into the overnight hours. Some models are also showing the chance that this system weakens slightly as it pushes north through the area...potentially diminishing the overall coverage of activity with time. Similar to tonight...instability in the area keeps the threat for thunderstorms around, but the threat for severe weather remains low. Higher dewpoints/better moisture building in will help any activity being efficient rain-makers...so any spots that have a stronger storm or any training could pick up at least an inch of rain through Friday night.

Confidence in precipitation chances for the upcoming weekend are not high...with models difference with the timing of this latest system working east of the area and when precip wanes. Some models are pretty slow, keeping the potential for at least scattered preciptiation around much of/if not all of the day on Saturday, a few lingering even longer. Forecast currently has much of the day Sunday dry with some weak shortwave ridging moving through...but any break would likely be brief, as chances ramp back up Sunday night.

As far as temperatures go, not looking at any notable swings...but with the plentiful precip chances and potential cloud cover make for a lower confidence forecast. Expecting highs generally in the 60s Fri-Sun...depending on precip timing into the daytime hours, some spots may struggle to even get to 60.

New work week...

Main story Sunday night, and moreso into Monday- Tuesday...continues to lie with the next upper level storms system working onto the Plains. Models remain in generally decent agreement big picture-wise with the upper level pattern through the weekend...showing the low pressure system currently over the Pac NW digging south as it shifts east...by 12Z Monday showing the main troughing working through the Rockies. Still plenty of differences between models beyond then, with how the pattern evolves as the system moves through the Plains...with recent runs having trended more toward a messy passage, and instead of one solid low, there is the potential for a few embedded vort maxes in the overall troughing. Recent trends have shown the potential for a first push of more widespread precipitation late Sunday night into the daytime hours Monday...with chances perhaps more scattered in nature Monday night into Tuesday as the main trough axis/various embedded lobes make the main push east through the Plains. Confidence in the finer details this far out remains pretty low...will be interesting to see how models trend in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR CIGs lower to IFR around sunrise with a mix of IFR and LIFR CIGs favored through the end of the TAF period. A few scattered showers/storms may develop over KGRI/KEAR in the next few hours and persist off and on through 18z. Around sunrise, as a system lifts into the area, CIGs expected to lower to IFR-LIFR at KGRI/KEAR. As it does so, fog is also possible which may reduce visibility to IFR. During the afternoon, the lowest CIGs/VIS are favored to move north of KGRI/KEAR but CIGs remain IFR. After sunset, showers move back into the area along with the potential for LIFR CIGS which persist off and on through the end of the TAF period. Have used a combination of TEMPO/PROB30 groups to outline the highest chances for precip and lowest CIGs/VIS.

GID WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...None. KS...None.