Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog returns this evening, lasting through tomorrow morning.

- Widespread rain spreads north this afternoon, continuing through tomorrow evening.

- Dry weather is expected through the remainder of the week. Models are giving hints of precipitation for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

An upper trough will continue digging into the western states today. Fog will continue to impact portions of the region through the morning with some locally dense fog, reducing visibility in spots to 2 mile or less.

As the Pacific upper trough moves through the Great Basin, a Colorado low is expected to develop ahead of it. This will spread anomalous gulf moisture northward. High forecast PWATS, between 0.7" and 0.9", generally favor southeast Montana and the Yellowstone River basin. Splitting in the upper trough near the Canadian boarder will keep cold air from being drawn southward, and result in little to no mixed precipitation or snow. Rain will begin to push northeast Sunday evening before spreading across the region through the late afternoon and evening. As the surface low deepens, an increase in winds will result by Monday afternoon.

A progressive, unsettled pattern will keep next week interesting with repeated upper level troughs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

No changes to NBM. A lot of uncertainty regarding fog, low cloud and precipitation today.

AVIATION

LAST UPDATED: 1900Z

FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR, IFR during patchy fog and low clouds.

DISCUSSION: Lingering MVFR/IFR stratus will continue through today. Low stratus and patchy fog cannot be ruled out again overnight. Widespread rain begins after 0z.

WIND: East at less than 10 kts becoming north at 15 to 20 kts after 9Z. Low confidence in LLWS impacting KGDV tomorrow morning.

GGW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.