Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers (40-60% coverage) will continue through Saturday morning with a drying trend Saturday afternoon.

- Confidence is increasing in another storm system bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today and tonight) Issued at 203 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A cloudy and occasionally wet end to the workweek is expected as a mid-level disturbance moves northeast across Texas. This feature is associated with remnant Pacific tropical moisture and will continue to provide broad ascent within an increasingly moist column. Scattered showers will occur throughout the day, with the greatest coverage across western North and Central Texas where the better overlap of moisture and forcing will reside. Rain chances will generally range from 50-70% west of US-281, decreasing considerably with eastward extent thanks to mid-level dry air and overall weaker ascent.

Instability will remain negligible, so this will overwhelmingly be a stratiform/rain shower precipitation event. A rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out across western portions of the area, but severe weather is not expected. Rainfall rates should remain light and therefore flooding concerns will be low.

Extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures rather cool, with highs ranging from the upper 60s across western portions of the area to the mid and upper 70s farther east.

Rain coverage will increase tonight as the disturbance moves farther northeast and deeper moisture spreads across the remainder of North and Central Texas. Most locations will have a 50-70% chance of rain through the overnight hours, although amounts should generally remain light. Overnight lows will range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 203 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

----- Halloween Rain & Trick-or-Treating -----

Periods of rain will likely be ongoing Saturday morning as the departing mid-level disturbance crosses North and Central Texas. Fortunately, the timing continues to favor improving weather during the afternoon.

As the disturbance lifts northeast, height rises and increasing upper-level convergence will promote subsidence across the Southern Plains. This should steadily suppress shower development while breaking apart the dense cloud cover from west to east. Rain chances will therefore be highest Saturday morning before decreasing substantially through the afternoon. Most of North and Central Texas should be dry by late afternoon or early evening.

This is encouraging news for Halloween festivities. While an isolated lingering shower cannot be completely ruled out, particularly across the eastern counties, the current expectation is for largely rain-free conditions during the typical trick-or- treating window.

Temperatures Saturday afternoon will generally be in the lower to middle 70s. Halloween evening will be mild and somewhat humid, with temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s around sunset and light winds.

Sunday will provide a brief break between weather systems as shortwave ridging develops over the region. There will be the potential for patchy fog to develop around daybreak where winds become light and sufficient low-level moisture remains following Saturday's rain. Fog should be patchy in nature and dissipate quickly after sunrise.

----- Early-Week Storm System -----

Attention then shifts to a stronger upper-level system approaching from the western CONUS Monday into Tuesday.

A deepening longwave trough will eject into the central Plains while strong cyclogenesis occurs across Kansas and Nebraska. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this system will draw Gulf moisture northward into North and Central Texas, allowing a modestly unstable warm sector to develop. A strong cold front will eventually sweep southeast across the region, accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms. The main forecast challenge remains the timing uncertainty of the front, with models ranging from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon.

Despite the timing differences, the environment ahead of the front should feature roughly 1000-1500 J/kg of elevated instability and 40-60 kts of deep-layer shear. This will be sufficient for organized convection and a few strong to severe thunderstorms. Given the overall flow is expected to remain parallel to the front and surface instability will remain rather weak, storm mode will likely remain linear with a damaging wind and perhaps a hail threat. As the front progresses east, thunderstorm activity will be shunted east of our region.

Behind the front, a much more seasonable airmass will arrive by the middle of next week. Gusty north to northwest winds will accompany the frontal passage, followed by afternoon temperatures in the 70s and overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Precipitation free conditions are expected through the rest of the week before another system approaches North and Central Texas late next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Today is setting up to be a cloudy and at times wet day across North and Central Texas TAF sites. Light rain showers are ongoing across Central Texas, generally west of KACT. This shower activity will continue moving northeast through the morning, leading to light rain over the airport this morning. Occasional low visibility will be possible if there is any moderate rain. Ceilings, however, are expected to remain VFR.

Across North Texas, we'll continue to see periodic waves of light showers moving across the region. Coverage is expected to be minimal as some rain will evaporate before reaching the ground (virga).

Gradual moistening of the atmosphere is expected this evening, and an increase in rain coverage is expected mainly west of the TAF sites. For that reason, VCSH was maintained with the 12z package. Low rain chances will persist through the rest of the TAF cycle with the rain potential decreasing Saturday afternoon.

Winds through the entire forecast period will remain light, starting this morning out of the northeast. Then, winds will become southeasterly.

Ceilings will begin to deteriorate Saturday morning, initially across Central Texas as MVFR settles over the airfield. The low ceilings will progress northward tomorrow morning, likely reaching North Texas TAF sites closer to 12z. Lower ceilings should persist through the morning before returning to VFR Saturday afternoon.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.