Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of North and Central Texas this afternoon.

- Well above normal temperatures, breezy conditions, and low humidity will lead to an elevated fire threat mainly west of I-35 today.

- Slightly cooler weather and some low rain chances return late weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Thursday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Water vapor imagery places North Central Texas on the western periphery of an anomalously strong subtropical ridge currently centered over the Deep South. 0400Z objective RAP analysis depicts 500mb heights of 596dam at its center, which is considered strong even for mid-summer standards. The FWD 15/00Z RaOb recorded 500mb heights of 593dam, near the highest ever recorded of 594dam per the SPC sounding climatology archive for this time of the year.

As the potent mid-level cyclone straddling the North Dakota/Canada border continues to translate northeast into Ontario, heights will rise across the Plains as further strengthening of the ridge will extend its magnitude of influence west across the region. Associated synoptic subsidence and a lack of any mesoscale surface features will maintain the monotonous weather pattern experienced as of late, with hot, dry, and mostly clear conditions once again expected for the day on Tuesday. Southerly flow early this morning will allow for the best moisture return to occur east of I-35; despite efficient diurnal heating and subsequent PBL mixing/deepening, surface dewpoints will only fall to the upper 60s. Coupled with high temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s, heat indices in excess of 105 can be expected. The Heat Advisory has been extended through 8pm for these locations east of I-35.

An elevated fire weather environment will exist today as it did yesterday, with low humidity and well above normal temperatures. As the upper- air pattern flattens out across the northern CONUS ahead of the next shortwave set to amplify into the Pacific Northwest, mid- level flow will assume an orthogonal component to the Rockies and will manifest some continued lee troughing and a resultant tightening of the pressure gradient along and just east of the Southern High Plains. Winds up to 20mph will be common west of I-35, in addition to RH values around 30% during the afternoon.

The westward expansion and eventual westward translation of the ridge will keep the region hot and dry through midweek. Some enhanced sea breeze activity may try to work some precipitation chances into the Brazos Valley on Thursday, though current expectations are for a majority of that activity to remain in Southeast Texas.

Dornsife

LONG TERM

(Thursday Night through Monday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The aforementioned anomalously strong upper ridge will be centered over the Arklatex late Thursday into Friday but indications are that it will weaken a bit going into the upcoming weekend as troughing amplifies over the western CONUS and an upper trough moves westward across the northern Gulf. As a result, heights will lower through the weekend across the Southern Plains with the pattern becoming more active to the north. A cold front will slide southward on Sunday and should enter our Red River counties after dark and will be accompanied by slightly cooler air and perhaps some increasing rain chances. While the strongest forcing for ascent will remain displaced to our north during this time, we should see an increase in storm potential late in the day Sunday ahead of the front and continuing into Sunday night and Monday. While it doesn't appear that we'll receive hugely beneficial rainfall, these may be some of the higher widespread rain chances that we've seen in quite a while.

Until then, hot and dry conditions will prevail through the end of the week with highs near 100 each day and heat indices near 105 degrees. The threat for grass fire activity will also continue through the week.

Dunn

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR will prevail through the period. Southerly winds of 8-14 kts may gust to 20kts at times, however spreads remain below thresholds for operational significance. Some fair weather cumulus of bases ~7 kft can be expected.

There is a small chance that brief MVFR cigs may occur again this morning at KACT. Forecast soundings don't look quite as favorable, but satellite trends will be monitored.

Dornsife

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FWD WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ093>095-103>107- 118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.