Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light rain showers are expected mainly south of US Highway 2 during the day Saturday, ending before Trick-or- Treat time.

- Widespread rain is expected across the region Monday into Tuesday, with a high chance for at least 0.5" of rainfall.

UPDATE

Issued at 343 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Dry with seasonal temperatures today (generally upper 40s to lower 50s), with periods of mid to high clouds as mid level ridging gradually builds into the Northern Plains. We are still on track for above average temperatures over the weekend, with the strongest WAA Sunday as a larger upper low moves east of the Rockies and into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest. During the day Saturday there is a signal for light showers as a mid level shortwave undercuts the upper ridge, but amounts are light from HREF/NBM within our forecast area. All of this is on track to end before 6pm though, so prime Trick-or-Treat hours should be dry and relatively "mild" considering climate averages for the end of October. The lowest evening temps are expected to be 45-52 range (north to south).

The system early next week continues to trend a little farther north with forcing and moisture advection and the current track favors deformation banding across our southern CWA. Probabilities for at least 0.5" have trended much higher (60-80% across our region). NBM 48hr probabilities for 1" arrange from 30% in the far northern fringes of the pattern to 60% in the southern Red River Valley.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

..Synopsis

Surface high pressure is in place following last night's cold front. This will maintain dry and seasonable conditions through Friday. Water vapor satellite imagery shows moisture flowing eastward into the region to allow for clouds to increase in the mid levels tonight. Starting Friday, ensemble guidance all points toward upper ridging building into the Northern Plains with a southwest flow pattern. This will trend temperatures toward above average, particularly by Saturday. The way this upper ridging builds with moisture transport can also promote low stratus, fog/drizzle - especially heading into November. This continues to lower confidence in exactly how warm temperatures get. With at least partial sun, temperatures could soar well into the 60s Sunday into Monday.

..Increasing Rain Chances

Getting into early to mid next week, ensemble guidance is mostly in agreement on some extent of rain event as an upper shortwave trough in the Southwest translates into the Central Plains. While the best forcing looks to remain south of our area, there could be enough influence from this feature to bring the next round of light to moderate rain into the forecast, heavily favoring the southern zones. A lack of cold air behind the system results in near zero chance for frozen precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

No changes to the forecast since the last update. VFR skies and light winds will be the story through the period with some mid level VFR clouds moving through tonight. No impacts to operations expected.

FGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.