Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light rain showers and drizzle are expected through this evening, with damp conditions during the main Trick-or- Treat period.

- Widespread rain is expected across the region Monday into Tuesday, with high chances for at least 1" of rainfall across southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota.

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue, particularly Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Cloud cover continues to expand northward, with only a few locations in northwest Minnesota seeing periods of broken sunshine. Winds are generally light and out of the east to southeast. Still looking at periodic drizzle or light rain across most of the area as the afternoon and evening progress, with the potential for mist or fog tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

A slow moving shortwave undercutting the upper ridge is expected to move to the south of our CWA today with increasing low level moisture due to increasing south-southeastly flow. Periods of stratus, scattered light rain or drizzle, and light fog should increase in coverage through the day. Actual coverage of measurable rain may remain isolated to scattered with a spotty signal in CAMs, however sounding continue to show deep enough saturation with forcing driven primarily from WAA within the saturated layer which could result in areas of drizzle developing and unfortunately lingering through the evening period. Early this morning there may be a few pockets of dense radiational fog, however once the stratus arrives the trend would be for mainly drizzle or light fog this afternoon into the overnight. While not a soaking rain today, damp conditions and minor visibility reductions won't make Trick-or-Treating very pleasant.

Forecast for a wetting and potential soaking rain is still on track for early next week, with high chances for at least 1" rainfall Monday-Tuesday. NBM shows a 60-80% probability across the southern Red River Valley into west central MN for that 48hr period. There is still a high chance for light to moderate rain farther north, so impacts to outdoor plans would still be expected even if amounts aren't as high.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

..Synopsis

An upper ridge is building into the Northern Plains with a southwest flow pattern. This will trend temperatures toward above average, particularly by Sunday and Monday. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a plume of moisture moving northward into the region to allow for low level clouds to begin overspreading the area late tonight. The way this upper ridging builds with moisture transport will promote a pattern with low stratus, fog and drizzle - especially with a low sun angle. Chances for drizzle and light showers peak Saturday afternoon and linger into the evening, especially south of US Highway 2. The expected cloud cover continues to lower confidence in exactly how warm temperatures get over the next few days. With at least partial sun, temperatures could soar well into the 60s on Sunday.

..Rain Event Monday/Tuesday

Getting into early to mid next week, ensemble guidance is mostly in agreement on a persistent deformation band of rain as an upper shortwave trough in the Southwest translates into the Central Plains. While the best forcing looks to remain south of our area, there could be enough influence from this feature to bring the next round of light to moderate rain into the forecast, heavily favoring the southern zones. A few ensemble members keep Grand Forks and points north mostly dry given a further south storm track. Monday-Tuesday Night (48 hour) probabilities for at least a half inch of rainfall range from around 80% in Fergus Falls down to 40% for Langdon at this time. A lack of cold air behind the system results in near zero chance for frozen precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

IFR to MVFR ceilings prevail across most locations heading into the afternoon. KTVF remains VFR for now, but will become MVFR by mid afternoon. Looking into the evening and overnight, ceilings continue to fall, becoming IFR to LIFR as mist and/or fog forms late this evening. Light rain and drizzle is possible, with the best chances at KFAR and KBJI. Heading into Sunday morning, conditions will slowly improve, however, cloud cover is expected to remain IFR to MVFR through at least the first half of the day.

FGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ND...None. MN...None.