Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- The threat for storms will continue on Tuesday with the main threats being gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning across north Georgia and the metro.

- Heat index values exceeding 105 degrees are forecast on Tuesday. A Heat Advisory has been issued for nearly all of north and central Georgia for Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Drier conditions are forecast across north and central Georgia on Thursday and Friday.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Remnant outflow boundary/MCV continues to push south across the CWA this afternoon after the morning convection. Airmass in parts of central Georgia remains quite ripe for some afternoon convection with analyzed SBCAPE of 3000-4000+ J/kg. Dewpoints are hovering in the upper 70s to near 80 in some of these areas with plenty of moisture through the column bringing PWATs to near or above 2". Main thing missing is the shear, otherwise our parameter space would be a bit more concerning. Still, afternoon storms are starting to fire across parts of eastern Georgia and isolated convection should spread into central Georgia if cloud cover clears enough to bring us to convective T. A few of these storms could be briefly severe thanks to precip loading of downdrafts and 1000+ J/kg of analyzed DCAPE. Primary threat would be wind gusts up to 60 mph.

Tomorrow sees the upper level ridge slide ever so slightly to the east which is very unfortunate for our temperature and humidity forecast. Heat builds into the area with mostly clear skies. Highs will be in the 90s. Dewpoints will be in the 70s. Misery will be experienced by all. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of north and central Georgia from noon through 8 pm Tuesday. Please take caution if working, exercising, or playing outdoors. Take frequent breaks and drink plenty of liquids.

Jet streak embedded within the NW flow of the upper level ridge/trough is expected to kick off some convection north of the area tomorrow afternoon/evening. CAMs are pretty uniform in seeing an MCS form and push south, potentially clipping portions of NE GA by the late evening to early overnight. Where things diverge is in how well said MCS holds together. Various CAMs dissolve it before it arrives into the CWA - others keep it into NE GA before quickly falling apart, and others still keep it together into parts of the metro. The REFS shows 40%-50% probability of 40 dbz returns across north Georgia Tuesday night, and (as usual) the RRFS is one of the more aggressive models in showing convection pushing into north Georgia and the metro. REFS mean SBCAPE values hover near 3000 J/kg, so plenty of instability will be in place. Shear will once again be the limiting factor (0-6 km mean around 20 kts). The main takeaway is that uncertainty is high around just how far south these storms get, but where they do hold together, expect to have a chance of some severe weather. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday morning through next Sunday) Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

By Wed morning a cold front will be As the long term period begins, a colds front will move south into North GA and push rapidly through the area. Expecting a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop with this front and move south through the day Wednesday. A few of these storms may be strong and capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and periods of heavy rain. We are currently under a Marginal risk across portions of central GA so will Definitely keep an eye on how things develop as we get closer to Wed. With the front moving through the area during the day we will also have the diurnally driven instability to deal with and things trailing off after sunset. The models show this front moving south of the area by 00z Thu with a much drier airmass moving in behind it. Drier air associated with a high pressure ridge builds southeast out of the western great lake states clearing things out for North and Central GA Thu/Fri. Temps are not expected to cool to much with high temps still expected in the upper 80s to middle 90s but the Apparent T (feels like temps) will be much lower.

By Sat the next frontal boundary moving east out of the lower to mid MS river valley moves into W GA just before daybreak. The main low pressure center moves east into western KY at the same time. With the close proximity of the low center to NW GA this frontal boundary should stay fairly organized as it moves through the region. The front exits the state Sun morning as the main low center moves NE into the Central/Eastern Great Lake states. Right now this is Days 6 and 7 so things may change as we get closer.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 804 PM EDT Mon Jul 27 2026

A few isolated SHRA/TSRA are ongoing in areas south of I-85, but are expected to diminish in coverage over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions remain in place this evening, with a cu field between 035-050 diminishing this evening. Aside from storm outflows, winds will be W/NW through the period, between 5-8 kts this evening becoming 5 kts or less overnight. Winds will pick up after sunrise and increase to 7-12 kts during the afternoon. Another low VFR cu field will develop after 15-16Z and persist through the afternoon. A cluster of TSRA will move NW to SE through north GA on Tuesday evening, though confidence is low on the timing and evolution of this system. Chances are too low to warrant mention at ATL at this time, but will continue to be monitored.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update... Low to medium confidence on TSRA chances on Tuesday evening. High confidence on all other elements.

King

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ001>005- 011>014-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098- 102>113.