Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- One more warm and dry day today before the pattern begins to change with more clouds and cooler temperatures as a result of a backdoor/wedge front on Saturday.

- Rain chances are on a decreasing trend but still expect rain late Saturday/early Sunday, however a more robust wave will bring a better chance for rain by mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 228 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Short term forecast remains dry, although we have reached the end of the dry road with a larger scale pattern change taking shape by the end of the short term. Last warm day in store Friday as mid level ridge remains in control with sub 1.0" pwats in place will allow for temps to again rise to near 80 area wide before the short wave approaches. At the surface, 1032mb surface ridge centered over the mid-atlantic wedges in by Saturday while increased moisture within an increasing SW flow aloft rides over the top of the sfc wedge. That combination will lower temps on Halloween as cloud cover increases and a NE flow at the surface begins to bring lower dpts in with the wedge front. Guidance is still trending lower on the pop coverage for the weekend and holding off on any significant pops with the exception of the far western GA counties early Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 228 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Looking Sunday onward, models continue to shift towards less wet conditions Sunday morning with quickly diminishing PoPs through the afternoon. The cause of this is better resolution of the new surface high asserting itself across the northeast driving east surface flow into the southeast CONUS. Subsequent CAD reduces moisture transport and keeps PWATs generally below 1.5". The developed high will also suppress much of the lifting associated with the weak subtropical shortwave. Our next best shot at any meaningful precipitation looks to come through the mid week timeframe. Timing of this secondary wave is uncertain as it will depend on when the western trough can decouple from the west coast and begin transporting energy eastward. The amplitude of the wave itself though will be enough to get the blocking high moving once more, which means an increase in confidence when compared to this Sunday. The high amplitude nature of the wave also means a slightly increased thunderstorm (maybe severe?) risk, however this will also depend on timing and forward momentum.

Temperatures through the period will be fair. Highs will start off in the 60s on Sunday (CAD) and increase to the 70s and near 80 through mid week. The temperature increase will be reliant on southerly flow ahead of the mid-week system.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions expected the next 30 hours. Today a few high clouds mixed in with a few CU during the afternoon and light east to northeast winds. High clouds should increase overnight into Saturday. A strong wedge front is slated to move in from the northeast during the morning hours on Saturday which will increase the winds out of the NE during the day. Mid and high clouds will also be on the increase on Saturday at all TAF sites.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update... High confidence all elements

30

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

FFC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.