Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Warmer afternoons with cooler mornings through Friday.

- Medium (30-60%) rain chances return for Saturday and Sunday.

- Dry and cooler the first part of next week.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Friday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Texas is on the southern edge of a mid to upper ridge. The flow is only slightly anticyclonic and close to zonal. At the surface, a dry cold front is stretched across our northern counties from near Georgetown to the Big Bend. Ahead of the front patchy fog has developed over the Coastal Plains and in a few spots its dense. The fog should only last until the front moves through later tonight and the winds pick up. Winds will turn to the north to northeast behind the front. The biggest change behind the front will be lower dewpoints. High temperatures will be about the same today and Friday, but dewpoints will be around 10 degrees lower. Skies will be mostly clear. Low temperatures will around five degrees lower Friday morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1225 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Friday night the upper ridge will get pushed to the east as another trough digs across the southwest. The old frontal boundary will still be in the vicinity. The combination of the upper trough and surface boundary will bring chances for rain for the weekend. Rain chances will spread across from west to east beginning after midnight Friday night out west spreading over the entire area Saturday and moving off to the east Sunday. Models have continued to show only moderate rainfall totals with no significant impacts. An upper level ridge will move in starting Monday bringing dry weather back for the first few days of next week.

With cloudy skies and showers, temperatures will be cooler over the weekend. After the rain moves away Monday winds will become northeasterly bringing in cooler, drier air. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be as much as 10 degrees cooler than the weekend. Wednesday there will start a warming trend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

For the first time in several days, VFR can be expected through the entire TAF. While a FROPA will occur later this morning, resulting in some breezy northwesterly winds at AUS, SAT, and SSF, gusts should remain less than 15 kts, and ceilings will be VFR. There is a chance for some low clouds at DRT, but ceilings are not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.