Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 516 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Light to moderate showers continue with heavier pockets within thunderstorms mainly along and southeast of I-35 for the rest of today into this evening. Some storms could produce marginally severe hail.

- Patchy to areas of fog expected tonight into Wednesday morning. Can't rule out areas of dense fog over some locations late tonight.

- Mid to late week will consist of milder afternoons but cooler mornings behind passage of a dry front late Wednesday afternoon/evening. - Medium (30-60%) rain chances makes a return for Saturday into Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 1230 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

The upper level system responsible for a wet weekend into early this week is located over northern Texas as of early this afternoon. It continues to pull elevated moisture from northern Mexico into the Rio Grande and Coastal Plains. The upper level system opens and moves to the southeast into east Texas as the afternoon and night progresses. At the surface, most observation sites are reporting light variable winds as of 12PM CST. However, above the surface, winds are from the southeast and south based on the 12Z soundings of DRT and CRP and forecast model soundings of 18Z. Also, pwats are ranging from 1.3 to 1.6 inches according to the 16Z Mesoscale Analysis page. All of this to say that light to moderate shower activity with some heavier downpours (storms) are forecast to continue for the rest of today mainly along and southeast of Interstate 35 including the Coastal Plains. With plenty moisutre in place and cloud coverage, today's lows are looking to range from mid to upper 60s over most areas and some locations over the Rio Grande and Coastal Plains may get into the low 70s.

Later this evening, the last round of showers and storms is projected to affect the Coastal Plains as the upper level open wave moves across east Texas and a disturbance in the southwest flow aloft pushes over that area. It looks like the passage of this wave opens the possibility for strong storms to develop across the Coastal Plains and SPC Day1 now highlight this area with a level 1 of 5, for the potential of strong storms capable of producing marginally severe hail. In addition, new rainfall amounts for the tonight into Wednesday morning period are forecast between quarter to half inch with isolated spots getting up to an inch especially over southern DeWitt and Lavaca counties.

While the Coastal Plains area deals with rain, most of the rest of South Central Texas is set for patchy to areas of fog especially the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau. Latest models are suggesting areas of dense fog developing along the Rio Grande, southern Edwards Plateau, and portions of the Hill Country. So, we will monitor closely the observations and issue a Dense Fog advisory if needed. Otherwise, overnight lows range from the low to upper 50s and a few low 60s across the Coastal Plains.

The upper level open wave exits Texas on Wednesday morning and this marks the end of rain chances over the local area. Cloud cover will still be in place for the morning, however, clouds break for the afternoon into the evening ahead of a dry cold front and during the passage of the boundary. Wednesday's highs looking to range from the low to upper 70s areawide.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1230 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

The dry cold front continues to push across the local area on Wednesday evening into the overnight period. Light northerly winds will be in place through the period with some gusts of 15 to 20 mph over the northern Hill Country and areas along and east of Highway 77. With some light winds and clear skies on Wednesday night, can't rule out some patchy to areas of fog along the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau. Overnight lows in the upper 40s over some locations of the southern Edwards Plateau with the rest of the area in the 50s.

Thursday and Friday are looking excellent with highs in the 70s and sunny skies with cooler overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

A pattern chance is forecast for the upcoming weekend as an eastern Pacific short wave enters northern Mexico and then moves across South Central Texas. Just like this past weekend, things start off the Rio Grande and then spreading eastward with time. There is a 30 to 60 percent rain chances through the period with highs in the 60s and 70s. Rain chances come to an end from west to east on Sunday afternoon through the evening. However, rain chances come right back as another cold front pushes across the local area early next week. However, low confidence on this at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Area of scattered -RA and isolated -TSRA along and east of a KAUS to KSSF line will diminish over the next several hours. Residual RA/DZ may cause brief periods of lowered CIGs/VSBYs along I-35 terminals through 03Z. Overnight, BR/FG development is forecast, with potential for IFR/LIFR conditions, with greatest confidence at KDRT and lower confidence at KAUS/KSAT/KSSF. Expect changes in the short term TAFs as the timing of fog development becomes better defined. Improvements to CIGs/VSBYs should commence around 15Z-18Z as a light 3-6 kt north wind establishes, though cloud cover is expected to be more stubborn at KDRT.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.