Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Low to medium rain chances (20-50%) persist this weekend before ending into and through the upcoming workweek.

- Cool and mostly cloudy this weekend before temperatures modify through the workweek with more sunshine.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Sunday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

South central Texas will endure two more days of on/off rain chances before drier, less muggy, and pleasant days return Monday and beyond. Aloft, a mid-level shear axis remains situated over the western half of the region and in combination with PWATs up between 1.8 and 2.0 will result in continued locally heavy rain rates with any showers or storms that form today or tomorrow. The latest hi-res CAMs have been onto additional showers and storms concentrating over the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains early this morning and continuing through midday before additional isolated to scattered showers develop throughout the entire CWA. Showers and storms will mostly be driven by daytime heating, but widespread cloud cover will limit how warm we will get. On Sunday, rain chances start to slip south of our region, but a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in the morning hours.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

By Monday, northerly flow from the sfc to 700mb will be the norm, meaning PWATs should drop quickly as drier air filters into the region along with increased sunshine through mid to late week. Temperatures will be comfortable and near average for early October with most sites in the lower to middle 80s. By late week, medium range models start to differ on the evolution of a disturbance over the southwestern Gulf associated with the the Central American Gyre. How this pattern evolves and whether an active pattern follows is yet to be seen.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Scattered showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms are expected to continue tonight, though the bulk of activity should remain west of I-35 terminals. Still, periods of -SHRA may continue for AUS/SAT/SSF at least for the next few hours. Ceilings will deteriorate overnight over a majority of the area with mainly MVFR to IFR ceilings expected with some isolated locations reaching LIFR. Light rain may continue through much of the morning for KDRT. I-35 terminals may also see some additional showers this afternoon but confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast. Northerly wind prevails through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

EWX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.