Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly above normal temperatures into tomorrow.

- Low chance for a isolated light showers late Saturday towards central MI.

- Mild early to middle next week.

AVIATION

Light and variable winds persist overnight as high pressure expands into the region and eventually drifts overhead. This causes winds to organize out of the southeast by mid Saturday morning, but remain light. Otherwise, VFR expected through the TAF period although there will be a steady stream of mid cloud based between 7.0 and 10.0 kft agl.

D21/DTW Convection...Thunderstorms are not forecast through the TAF period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES

* None

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

DISCUSSION...

Inbound high pressure expands into the central Great Lakes this evening/tonight and brings quiet weather conditions into tonight with just a some high clouds streaming across the area tonight under a light to calm wind. The high clouds will be focused across lower portions of southeast Michigan tonight. This will cause a difference in radiational cooling conditions with the Thumb and Saginaw Valley likely being around the freezing mark tonight under more favorable conditions compared to locations towards the southern MI border that will be about 10 degrees warmer for the overnight low.

High pressure maintains influence over the region tomorrow as mostly dry conditions largely prevail. A warm front is forecast to lift towards the region tied to a weakening shortwave lifting out of the southern Plains. Better theta-e surge and moisture transport will be to the west of Lake Michigan. Outgoing forecast remains dry Saturday and Saturday night, but a few isolated light showers may be possible with the weak theta-e advection west of the forecast area that could encroach on western portions of southeast Michigan. Minimal QPF expected if it does occur.

High pressure lingers over the Atlantic coast early next week as western CONUS troughing marches into the plains during the mid week period. This will lead to a southerly wind component prevailing across Michigan and bringing mild temperatures. Decent spread in long range models in regards to timing of the next chance of precipitation as longer wave troughing develops over the central plains with the potential for a secondary Canadian shortwave merging with the broader trough. Broad brush of PoPs Monday night into Wednesday highlight the uncertainty in timing. Forecast within this pattern has daily highs in the 60s with increasing humidity helping keep overnight lows in the 50s. Late week stands best chance for cold frontal passage bringing temperatures back to around the average for this time of year.

MARINE...

High pressure builds in this evening and through tomorrow which will lower wind speeds across Lake Huron and will maintain lighter winds through the weekend. High pressure exits into New England late tomorrow into Sunday which will bring southerly flow this weekend that will last into early next week. Mostly dry conditions are expected, outside of isolated spotty showers. More active conditions then enter late Monday and through the Midweek period as low pressure develops over the Plains before moving across the northern Great Lakes. This will bring breezy south flow Tuesday and Wednesday along with rain showers and a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm.

DTX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.