Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy Sunday with increasing south winds.

- Showers and thunderstorms expected early Monday, with locally heavy rain expected, and strong to severe wind gusts possible.

- Windy warm and dry for most of SW KS Monday. Severe thunderstorms near Barber County for a few hours Monday evening.

- Very windy and much cooler with widespread rain expected Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Earlier this evening an upper level trough was lifting northeast across western Kansas. Lingering showers/sprinkles continue across southwest Kansas ahead of this upper wave given the lingering layer of deep low level moisture and weak lift. As this upper wave continues to move east/northeast overnight the light precipitation will taper off, however cloud cover is expected to linger into Sunday. This is due to the slow west to east erosion of the deep moist layer. In the areas the do break out overnight these locations will quickly have fog/stratus develop given the moist upslope flow. Currently the latest guidance indicates that this fog will reduce visibilities to less than 1 mile west of highway 83 but the probability of the dense fog from the ensembles are around 50 percent and mainly near the Colorado border. Given this limited area and low confidence have at this time opted to not issue a dense fog advisory. Will however monitor this closely and issue one later tonight if required. Despite not issuing a dense fog advisory....anyone traveling near the Colorado border should be prepared for patchy dense fog.

Thunderstorm chances will increase Sunday night across southwest Kansas. A few storms will be capable of producing gusty winds of 50 mph or higher. On Sunday an upper level trough will deepen as it crosses the southwest United States. Across eastern Colorado during the day the surface pressures will begin to fall as a result of this deepening upper level trough approaching from the west. This will result in increasing southerly winds which will draw gulf moisture back across west Texas into eastern Colorado and southwest Kansas. Sunday night an upper level disturbance embedded in the moist southwest flow ahead of this main upper trough will approach southwest Kansas and as it does scattered evening thunderstorms developing over northeast New Mexico and eastern Colorado. What storms that do develop will spread into southwest Kansas overnight as the eastern Colorado surface boundary moves eastward into western Kansas. A few of these elevated storms overnight may be capable of producing wind gusts of 50 mph or a little higher given the improving downdraft cape and 0-6km shear along 850-700mb moisture transport/warm air advection developing across southwest Kansas.

A slight risk for severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and evening east of highway 183. On Monday the main upper level trough will approach southwest Kansas during the day as the Sunday night upper level disturbance exits western Kansas. As our more significant upper trough approaches, a cold front will move into western Kansas. The surface trough of low pressure which will be moving across southwest Kansas Sunday night is now forecast to be located in south central Kansas near Pratt and Medicine Lodge late day as the cold front crosses southwest Kansas. As this cold front intersects this surface boundary over south central Kansas late day the low level moisture convergence/lift will improve as the upper level synoptic lift increases in this area based on the location of the left exit region of an upper level jet. This will not only increase the chance for late day thunderstorms across south central Kansas near this boundary but also given the moisture return, shear and mid level instability now forecast in this area there will be a chance that few of these developing storms late day/early evening to be severe. Large hail and strong damaging winds will be the main hazards. Currently the exact location of where this boundary will be late Monday is still unclear with several of the ensembles placing it east of Pratt and Medicine lodge. At this time given uncertainty on the exact locations of the surface boundary and timing of the cold front moving into south central Kansas am currently unable to completely rule out the chance for a few severe storms east of highway 183 as the SPC slight risk highlights. Still with this said I also would not not be surprised if Monday afternoon storms develop near the Pratt and Medicine Lodge area and then move east of this area before becoming severe.

Very windy conditions will be possible Monday night and Tuesday as showers and thunderstorms continue across southwest Kansas. Further west of the late day convection potential over south central Kansas mention above there will also be additional thunderstorm activity near the 700-500mb deformation that will be moving into western Kansas. As the main upper trough crosses western Kansas Monday night this deformation zone will cross southwest Kansas from west to east and produce another round (50-70% chance) of thunderstorms Monday night into early Tuesday. Very windy conditions will also accompany with this precipitation given the tight surface pressure gradient that will be present across southwest Kansas, 850mb mean ensemble wind speeds of 45 to 50 knots and the latest gust via momentum transfer from the BUFR soundings. Based on this the wind gusts should easily exceed 35 mph as what the current guidance suggests...however there is a 40-70% chance for gusts to be 45 mph or higher, mainly north of Dodge City on Tuesday. This 40-70% chance for winds to be gusting greater than 45 mph is up from 25 to 50% just 24 hours earlier. Those with outdoor plans should be prepared for these stronger winds given the trend of the models over the past few runs.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Surface observations at 1645z Sun depicted widespread stratus across all of SW KS, reducing flight categories to IFR/LIFR. High confidence stratus will hold through at least 06z Mon, with ceilings creating poor flying weather. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to arrive late tonight, with model consensus placing the storms at/near the airports 06-09z Mon. Placed convective TEMPO group at LBL, where confidence in convective impacts is highest. South winds will be elevated and strong throughout this TAF period, gusting 30-35 kts. A strong low level jet is forecast 00-12z Mon, with southwest winds near 60 kts at 2k feet AGL.

DDC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.