Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Strongest cold front of the young Autumn season due in today as winds shift to the northeast and increase to 15 to 25 mph, gusting to 35 mph at times.

- Temperatures will top out to their highs late morning/midday most areas 70s to lower 80s with temps slowly falling in the afternoon.

- The exception to the above bullet will be the south central Kansas counties, as they will remain ahead of the front through afternoon -- highs in the mid to upper 90s (100 not out of the question Hardtner/Kiowa areas of Barber County).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

The last of evening/late night showers and thunderstorms were moving across southwest Kansas along roughly Ness City to Dodge City to Meade line shortly before 06Z. The remnant shower/thunderstorm activity will eventually dissolve all together overnight, and the focus will shift more toward the strong cold front later today.

On the midnight CDT analysis, observations were showing northerly winds approaching the far northwest corner of northwestern Kansas, but the noticeably cooler air was still up in northwestern Nebraska in the Sandhills where temperatures had fallen into the lower to mid 50s (51F at Chadron, NE). As the vigorous storm system up north continues to pull away from the Northern Plains, the low level cold air advection will increase and expand quickly south today. Temperatures, low cloud cover, and precipitation chances will all be challenges in the forecast today with the first true shot of Autumn air into southwestern Kansas. Given the magnitude of cooler air up north and latest models coming into better alignment, we have trended cooler with the official forecast -- going lower than the baseline NBM, incorporating some CONSShort weight which has a better handle on the upstream temperatures and better representation of hourly temperature trends with the cold air advection and low cloud cover preventing a normal diurnal temperature curve. Expect temperatures to hold steady or fall during the afternoon with most areas in the 60s to lower 70s by late afternoon north of a Hugoton to Dodge City Kinsley line.

Even though the surface front will be pushing south, the frontal zone around 5 kft will remain quasi-stationary across southwest Kansas with respectable dewpoints of +14 to +16C at that ~5 kft level (850mb). Southwest Kansas will also be well within the northwestern periphery of a still fairly coherent North American Monsoon circulation which as not been disrupted as of yet in this pattern (mainly thanks to a persistent subtropical high of 597 decameters at 500mb centered over the southeastern CONUS. POPs will remain fairly high as a result through Tuesday Night.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 120 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Difficult aviation weather coming up later today with wind shift timing issues, how strong gusts will be behind the surface front, how quickly ceiling will fall through MVFR down into IFR (late afternoon and this evening), and whether we get enough shower and thunderstorm activity to carry PROB30 thunder. There is enough confidence to include PROB30 thunder at HYS early to mid afternoon but kept GCK, DDC, and LBL devoid of thunder for now. There is high enough confidence in widespread low stratus with the front, and most airports will fall into MVFR category not long after the initial wind shift to the northeast at GCK and HYS. The stratus may come to a halt for a time this afternoon as the leading edge may erode some with insolation, but once the sun angle lowers again early this evening, just about all locations should fall well into IFR at some point Tuesday Night.

DDC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.