Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Special Weather Statement issued today for elevated risk of wildfire spread

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heightened wildfire spread risk this afternoon

2) Lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues into early November before coming to an end by late next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Heightened wildfire spread risk this afternoon

Coordinated special weather statement with PA DCNR and WFOs BGM/PHI was issued this morning for elevated wildfire spread risk. While minRH values remain somewhat marginal, gusty NW winds 20-30 mph and excessively dry conditions over the past 2 weeks are driving the heightened wildfire threat for the remainder of the afternoon. ------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues into early November before coming to an end by late next week

Another very pleasant and comfortable weekend to close out October (Halloween) and start November (ending daylight saving time).

The latest model guidance continues to grow in agreement with the progression of a CONUS-crossing upper trough eventually reaching the eastern U.S. by the second half of next week. Highest odds for rain are currently placed around Thursday 11/5. There also continues to be some indications that rich Gulf moisture will be pulled northward along a well defined north south oriented frontal zone accompanying the full latitude upper trough which could result in moderate to heavy rainfall.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR flying prevails for the next several days. Gusty winds from 290-320 degrees subside into tonight. Low confidence on fog restrictions late tonight/early Saturday and left out of 30/18Z TAF set.

Outlook...

Sat-Wed...A.M. valley fog; otherwise VFR. Increasing chance of rain from mid to late week.

CTP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.