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000 FXUS64 KCRP 301128 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 628 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026...New AVIATION...

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Minor coastal flooding along with a moderate rip current risk will continue through the weekend.

- Low to medium (20-55%) chance of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday night.

- Drier Saturday with warm and humid conditions expected for Halloween weekend.

- Our next cold front is expected sometime around Tuesday of next week along with chances for rain and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue, mainly over the Brush Country, tonight. As moisture from Post Tropical Depression Vance moves to the northeast, rain chances will once again shift over the Victoria Crossroads, where a Marginal (Level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in place for today and tonight. Rain chances will diminish later tonight as the moisture continues to pull further away from South Texas.

The most important question for us all is: will I need to ruin my Halloween costume with a raincoat? Well, good news!!! While a 20% chance of showers will linger mainly northeast of the Victoria Crossroads, most locations will remain dry. Not only are we expected to be dry, but low temperatures will stay in the 70s/upper 60s with light winds Halloween night for all you guys and ghouls out there. Our post Halloween crash will be warm and sunny through early next week.

Model guidance continues to show a cold front sweeping across South Texas sometime on Tuesday. This will bring another low to medium (20- 60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. Temperatures in the 50s may make an appearance late next week.

Guidance continues to indicate tidal levels above 2.0 ft MSL through the weekend, before finally dropping below criteria Monday. Have continued the Coastal Flood Advisory for minor coastal flooding during periods of high tide through Saturday morning. It is possible that we will need to extend this further, but we will continue to monitor.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Currently have a line of showers moving northeastward across the Brush Country with isolated showers across eastern terminals resulting in reduced VSBYs and lower CIGs. Generally expecting periods of VFR interrupted by MVFR conditions with IFR to LIFR conditions possible, especially in and around storms. Convective activity should taper off by late afternoon with a good chance for lower ceilings and fog developing overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Light to moderate (BF 2-4) southeasterly flow will persist through much of the week, with seas generally 3 to 5 feet. Low to medium (15- 40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Abundant low-level moisture and winds generally below 20 knots will limit fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Rain chances will diminish over the weekend. Another cold front is expected early next week with drier conditions in its wake.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Temperatures Chance of Precipitation
Location Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day Tonight Tomorrow Tomorrow night Next day
Corpus Christi 81 ℉ 70 ℉ 86 ℉ 71 ℉ 40% 10% 0% 10%
Victoria 78 ℉ 65 ℉ 83 ℉ 67 ℉ 60% 40% 20% 10%
Laredo 83 ℉ 69 ℉ 87 ℉ 71 ℉ 30% 10% 10% 0%
Alice 83 ℉ 67 ℉ 87 ℉ 68 ℉ 50% 10% 10% 10%
Rockport 81 ℉ 71 ℉ 82 ℉ 72 ℉ 60% 20% 30% 10%
Cotulla 78 ℉ 67 ℉ 83 ℉ 69 ℉ 50% 10% 10% 10%
Kingsville 84 ℉ 68 ℉ 88 ℉ 69 ℉ 40% 10% 0% 10%
Navy Corpus 80 ℉ 74 ℉ 82 ℉ 75 ℉ 60% 10% 10% 10%

CRP WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...None.

DISCUSSION...LS/77 AVIATION...BF/80