Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Mid-week rain system continues trend slower. Confidence increasing that rain may not begin until Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather with warmer than average temperatures through Tuesday.

2) A system is likely to move in mid-week, bringing another round of wetting rainfall.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather with warmer than average temperatures through Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure remains centered just east of the area. The high center is close enough east of us to where all of the area will remain with strong enough subsidence to keep us dry, with the exception of isolated showers and storms right along the Quebec border of the western North Woods the next few afternoon. Winds will remain fairly light with sea breezes up to about 10 mph. Temperatures will be warm, but not hot, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints will remain relatively low, especially in the afternoon hours with upper 40s to mid 50s, so it won't feel muggy. Patchy valley fog will again be likely tonight and tomorrow night, but should dissipate not long after the sun comes up.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A system is likely to move in mid-week, bringing another round of wetting rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system slides along the east coast this week. Generally, low pressure east of the Carolinas moves northeast in the Atlantic, east of Nova Scotia. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches on Monday and lingers to our west on Tuesday. A shortwave diving southeast over the Ontario province will develop a low pressure system over the Great Lakes region late Monday into Tuesday. Wetting rainfall expected, with higher totals along Downeast, Wednesday morning into Thursday. Potential for 0.5 to 1 inch of rainfall. Some thunderstorms are also possible with this system Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. There is some instability (CAPE, good low-level lapse rates, DCAPE) ahead of the front, so potential for isolated thunderstorms with some gusty winds.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Rest of Today and Tonight...VFR. S winds 5 to 10 kts becoming light and variable this evening. Can't rule out brief MVFR/IFR in shallow fog at any airport 5-12z Monday, but chances are less than 30 percent and don't have enough confidence to put in TAF.

Monday and Monday Night...VFR with S/SE winds 5-10 kts Monday, becoming light Monday night. Again a small (less than 30 percent) chance of shallow fog late Monday night.

Tuesday and Tuesday night...VFR. Chance for some fog Tuesday night. S/SE winds at 5 to 10 kts Tuesday, becoming light and variable overnight.

Wednesday through Friday..Decreasing to MVFR Wednesday afternoon, possible IFR in showers/T-storms Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain overnight on Thursday, and T-storms possible again on Friday. S/SE winds 5 to 10 kts Wednesday. Winds shift E/NE by Thursday, and shift N by Friday. Gusts to 15-20 mph possible during the afternoon periods.

MARINE

Light winds/seas persist through Monday night.

Seas below SCA criteria Monday into mid-week. Seas around 3-4 ft. Outer waters could see a few 5 ft waves on Thursday. Winds shift S Tuesday, and E Wednesday and Thursday. Potential for overnight fog Tuesday night. Rain moves in on Wednesday, with a chance for thunder Wednesday afternoon.

CAR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.