Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Significant rainfall remains unlikely through early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Outside of a few showers late this weekend rain chances remain low through mid-next week before the pattern becomes active late next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Outside of a few showers late this weekend rain chances remain low through mid-next week before the pattern becomes active late next week.

The near stationary surface ridging across the northeastern CONUS will remain steadfast into the middle of next week, with guidance in good agreement on a relatively dry forecast over the weekend. Breezy northeast winds and dry high pressure will continue through Sunday before a weak and ultimately inconsequential shortwave brings a brief return of moisture to the area, with a couple of showers possible; PoP's hover around 20% regionwide with the southern Midlands and CSRA the best spots for any showers. The surface ridging then digs across the area for the first half of next week before the pattern becomes more chaotic aloft with numerous shortwaves and trough ejections. A strong trough will eject out of the Southwest CONUS Monday before occluding and then sluggishly moving across the US. Moisture return ahead of this trough should be enough to bring some decent rainfall potential for Thursday and Friday, but beyond that, predictability falls apart. There is enough hints within both the physics ensembles and AI suite that we could have some severe potential later next week, but it will be predicated upon these shortwave and occluded low interactions which are notoriously difficult to predict. Regardless, rain chances increase late next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

LLWS possible early Saturday morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

High clouds will advect over the terminals tonight keeping mostly cloudy skies in place through the 24 hour TAF period. As surface high pressure moves into the Northeast and ridges into the forecast area, we will see a strengthening low-level jet (LLJ) with 30 to 35 kt winds around 2000 ft. Surface winds will pick up a little after 06Z with speeds around or just over 5 kts. So although confidence in LLWS is not high enough to include in the TAFs at the moment, the VAD wind profile will need to be monitored through the night. The highest chance of hitting LLWS criteria will be between 06Z and 12Z. With increased mixing and BKN skies, fog is unlikely early Saturday.

Winds will pick up relatively early Saturday morning around 13Z or 14Z as the LLJ mixes down to the surface. The increased pressure gradient will allow for ENE winds from 8-12 kts with gusts 20 possible through the end of the TAF period. Mid and low levels remain dry so no rainfall is expected Saturday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture increases early next week and may lead to ceiling restrictions. Rainfall chances increase mid-week.

CAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.