Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Significant rainfall remains unlikely through early next week. Aviation updated for 12z issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Outside of a few showers late this weekend rain chances remain low through mid-next week before the pattern becomes active late next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Outside of a few showers late this weekend rain chances remain low through mid-next week before the pattern becomes active late next week.

Another reinforcing surface high pressure is settling into the Mid-Atlantic this evening, with drier and cooler air ushering into the area for the weekend. As this occurs, high level clouds are approaching from the west, a harbinger of a shortwave trough that is expected to slowly stretch out over the next couple of days. A modest increase in moisture is expected as the aformentioned trough pushes eastward towards the area through the weekend but few impacts are expected out of that. Guidance shows some scattered showers possible on Sunday evening and into early Monday, but otherwise, mid-level clouds and cooler temperatures are expected this weekend.

As we get into next week, a slow increase in afternoon temps is expected through the week, and confidence is relatively high that we should see above normal temps for much of the week. This owes itself to persistent deep troughing to our west and the expectation that broad and persistent southwesterly flow will overspread the southeastern CONUS for much of the week. However, parsing much more is difficult to impossible. The pattern is forecast to become increasingly complex next week, with a very meridional pattern setting up to our west. Guidance is handling this poorly across the board, with physics based and AI guidance consistently showing large run-to-run differences in the 500 hPa heights even at hours as near as 96-120. This is unusual and indicative of a pattern that has inherent unpredictability involved. As such, we will parse what we can (above normal temps, an increased likelihood in rain chances by the end of next week) and avoid speculating beyond that.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

LLWS now slightly less of an issue now that surface winds have increased. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Broken cirrus will be the primary clouds moving through the region. In addition, winds will inhibit any fog or visibility issues, so vfr will prevail through the period.

Main issue through the daytime hours will be the winds. Low- level jet has produced winds of 30-35 knots around 1kft this morning. Winds were previously near calm, and llws was an issue. However low-level mixing has increased and has been able to erode the surface inversion enough that the winds have increased at the surface, and taf locations have even seen some wind gusts. This will help to limit the llws now this morning, even though winds around 1kft will still be around 30-35 knots. Through the daytime, surface winds between 7-12 knots, with gusts upwards of 20 knots should occur across the forecast area. Towards sunset wind will diminish some and begin to decouple, which will then limit wind gusts. Surface winds will still be around 5 knots overnight. Can not rule out another round of potential llws again tonight, but not confident enough to place in tafs at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture increases early next week and may lead to ceiling restrictions.

CAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.