Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. Aviation updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A backdoor front will usher in drier and slightly cooler air through the middle to end of this week.

- 2. Increasing moisture and rain chances by the end of the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A backdoor front will usher in drier and slightly cooler air through the middle to end of this week.

Confidence remains high in the pattern over the next several days. Extreme 500 hPa ridge remains settled over the southeastern US, with NAEFS and LREF 500 hPa heights at the 100th percentile for this time of year. Despite this, our weather looks quite pleasant through Friday owing to a backdoor front that is currently marching through the area. Highs look closer to normal - in the upper 80s and lower 90s - over the next few days but the humidity will be the major story. Below normal PWs, plentiful sunshine, and subsidence aloft will result in fairly robust mixing of the dry airmass across the central Carolinas. Afternoon dewpoints Wed/Thur are expected to fall into the 50s, and this dry airmass will foster lows each morning in the 60s! It will be a brief reprieve but a well deserved one nonetheless.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing moisture and rain chances by the end of the weekend into early next week.

The persistent upper-level ridge begins to break down by the weekend as a cold front approaches the forecast area from north Saturday. A weak inverted upper trough is forecast to retrograde beneath the upper ridge and into the northern Gulf by the weekend. The combination of these two things will lead to an increase in southerly/southwesterly flow, with LREF members all showing 75th-85th percentile PWs arriving back in the area by Sunday and Monday. The inverted trough is likely to slowly lift northeastward early next week, with unsettled weather likely to return as a result.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mainly VFR through the period, although some MVFR ceilings could develop across the area early Tuesday morning.

A front has sagged south of the terminals early this morning and while drier air is expected to continue to move in behind the front, lingering low level moisture with deep layer dry air aloft will lead to some restrictions developing early this morning, already evident along the SC coast where MVFR ceilings are beginning to increase in coverage. Blended and hi-res guidance favor MVFR ceilings at CAE/CUB with TEMPO restrictions at OGB and AIK. A bit more uncertainty for the Augusta terminals where stratus likely will not reach there after sunrise and will have higher chance of mixing out before restrictions develop. Have left a mention of scattered clouds below 2kft. Drier air continues to filter in late morning into the afternoon behind the front with VFR conditions expected and winds out of the NE shifting more easterly between 5 to 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions unlikely for much of the week.

CAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.