Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 248 PM EDT Friday...

No significant changes made.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 248 PM EDT Friday...

1. Very quiet weather expected this weekend with near critically low humidities on Saturday, but winds will be 5 to 15 mph, mitigating fire weather concerns.

2. Next chance for precipitation will come late next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 248 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery indicates strong subsidence/dry air aloft, but plenty of moisture trapped below inversion is resulting in plenty of stratus clouds, especially in favorable upslope areas. Secondary cold frnt and associated s/w energy is approaching the Ottawa Valley this aftn, with additional spotty showers. Based on crnt radar imagery and favorable upslope flow under modest llvl caa have continued with chc pops acrs the northern Dacks and central/northern Greens thru 06z this evening. Sounding data indicates the depth of moisture is only thru 850mb, so areal coverage and intensity of precip wl be light and mostly confined to the trrn. Our CWA conts under caa tonight, with Whiteface Summit already down to 28F with windchill of 14F, so expecting coolest values acrs the mid-upper elevations with warmest readings in the valleys. Lows generally mid 20s to mid/upper 30s overnight.

On Saturday a 1033mb high pres builds toward Binghamton, NY with cool northerly flow prevailing. Soundings show any lingering moisture should dissipate, with just a few fair wx cumulus clouds expected over the trrn. Progged 850mb temps range btwn -3C and -6C, which support highs from the mid/upper 20s summits to upper 40s warmer valleys. SOundings indicate mixed layer winds of 10 to 15 knots, which wl result in sfc winds of 5 to 15 mph acrs most area. These winds wl help mix slightly drier toward the sfc with min rh values in the 30 to 45% range. Lowest rhs wl be in the lower CT River Valley and near BTV, with highest over the summits.

Saturday night lows are tricky based on potential llvl moisture trapped below strengthening subsidence inversion per latest NAM12 and NAM3KM sounding data. Meanwhile, the latest RRFS profiles indicate the potential for fog at SLK and other climo favored areas, but feel reaching below cross over values maybe challenging. For now have kept lows near NBM values, given the cloud potential and lingering bl winds of 4 to 8 knots. Lows generally mid 20s to mid 30s.

Sunday and Monday are quiet with sfc high pres shifting off the Mid Atlantic coast and developing llvl waa. This wl produce another window of above normal temps for early next week with highs well into the 50s on Sunday and upper 50s to mid 60s by Monday. The dry conditions prevail, except a few sprinkles are possible Monday morning associated with warm front over northern NY. Moisture and dynamics are limited, so potential is small attm.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Still some model disagreement with how our next weather maker will play out, but at this time next rainfall to reach our region will arrive later next week. GFS indicates a low pressure system that passes much too far north of our region to be too impactful, and a weak front crosses the area Wednesday night into Thursday. ECMWF shows a low pressure system passing much closer to our area which has potential for some better moisture and also precipitation chances, and has a bit of a slower solution with bulk of precipitation arriving on Friday. A lot of uncertainty exists this far out, but details will become more clear as we approach the second half of next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00Z Sunday...VFR expected at all terminals through the next 24 hours. SCT/BKN VFR cigs generally in the 040-060 AGL range to gradually scour out overnight leading to mainly SKC/SCT conditions from sunrise Saturday onward as high pressure builds into the region. Higher summits, esp. in the Adirondacks occasionally obscured through 06-10Z. Winds mainly northwesterly 6-12 knots, occasionally gusty early, trending light and less than 8 knots later tonight into Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE

As of 248 PM EDT Friday... A Lake Wind Advisory continues tonight for breezy northwest winds 15 to 30 knots. Winds are currently 15 to 25 knots on the lake with a few localized gusts up to 30 knots, which will continue until 06z, before slowly weakening toward sunrise. Wave will be 1 to 3 feet but a few higher swells up to 4 feet are possible. Much lighter winds are expected on Saturday and Sunday.

BTV WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.