Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Sped of the end of precipitation a bit for much of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

- The ongoing storm system winds down through the morning as rain and snow come to an end for most by mid morning to early afternoon while gusty winds stick around most of the day.

- Lingering light rain showers and mist possible to close out the weekend before high pressure marks the return of sunny skies and warming temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The ongoing storm system winds down through the morning as rain and snow come to an end for most by mid morning to early afternoon while gusty winds stick around most of the day.

Infrared satellite imagery shows our much watched low pressure center spinning south of the region this morning directing gusty E/NE winds into southern New England. This, together with favorable jet dynamics and an atmospheric column saturated through 500mb will continue to lead to widespread rain showers, flipping to some high elevation snow flakes over the next ~6 hours before the moisture and better lift is suppressed to the south. PWATs now as high as 0.75" according to mesoanalysis will drop closer to 0.5" by 18z save for the immediate south coast. Thus, the best chance of seeing showers continuing in the afternoon and evening will be along the south coast of MA and RI though thick cloudcover remains entrenched everywhere. The tight pressure gradient sticks around so we'll see those gusty N/NE winds continue throughout the day. The strongest gusts will be over Cape Cod and the islands. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for northern facing shores of Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket where said gusty winds combined with astronomical tides may lead to some minor coastal flooding/splashover in the hours directly around high tide this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Lingering light rain showers and mist possible to close out the weekend before high pressure marks the return of sunny skies and warming temperatures.

A quick moving shortwave dropping south from Canada late Saturday into Sunday will bring just enough enhanced moisture to allow for some lingering shower chances mostly offshore, but can't rule out some sprinkles and mist for the Cape and Islands. At the same time, high pressure begins to build over the Upper Midwest and push east, compressing the pressure gradient and leading to prolonged breezy conditions across southern New England through a good portion of Sunday as well. However, the strengthening high will mark the return of a dry period through most of next week. High temps slowly climb through the week... near 50 Sunday to near 60 by Wednesday. The high pressure will also bring back several nights of radiational cooling with clear skies and low winds, likely dropping low temperatures into the 20s and low 30s through the week as well.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update:

Friday: Moderate confidence.

MVFR-IFR in -RA and -SN for ORH with improving visbys as rain intensity begins to taper off by 13-15z northern MA, around 15-18z for the interior. MVFR ceilings hold on during the daytime hours for south coast terminals. NE/N winds around 12-16 kt with gusts 25-28 kt.

Friday Night: High confidence in TAF/trends but moderate on timing.

Should be starting with VFR, except for terminals in southeast MA and RI, with VFR expanding to all terminals by 06z. Substantial improvement takes place after 06z Sat. North to northwest winds 8-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Saturday...High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Diurnal cloudcover 050 to 060 after 17z.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday through Tuesday: VFR.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday...High confidence.

* Gale Warnings continue today

Low pressure tracks near the Benchmark today. The pressure gradient will be strong enough to generate N-NE wind gusts of 35 knots across our open waters Fri along with 5 to 10 foot seas. Gale Warnings continue for our open waters. The low moves east of the the benchmark tonight and pressure gradient weakens enough for winds to diminish to Small Craft Advisory levels. Saturday low pressure continues to exit east with high pressure approaching from the west, so winds will be breezy but less than Friday/Friday night. Seas starts out Saturday 3-5 ft, diminishing to 2-4 ft by Saturday night. Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ230- 236. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ231>235-237- 250-251-254>256-280>283.