Letterhead and timestamp
000 FXUS64 KBMX 310516 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1216 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Issued at 1213 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2026
- Halloween Evening: A rainy weekend is brewing in the cauldron, but the trick-or-treating outlook is losing its fright factor. We expect the skies to hold their watery spells until after the witching hour, but keep your enchanted rain cloaks and umbrellas on standby just in case a rogue shower tries to dampen your spirits!
- Midweek rain: Another weather system will move into the area around the middle part of next week bringing increased rain chances.
DISCUSSION
(Saturday through next Friday) Issued at 1152 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2026
A prominent plume of deep atmospheric moisture, originating from the remnants of Tropical Storm Vance and associated with an approaching upper-level shortwave trough, is projected to interact with a rich swath of high (PWAT) values streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico. This dynamic setup will foster elevated precipitation chances across central Alabama throughout the weekend. While the highest probabilities for widespread rain are anticipated to manifest overnight, we will continue to maintain low-end chances (20-30%) during the Saturday afternoon hours; so if planning outdoor weekend activities or early trick-or-treating you should take this into account. With that being said, several higher-resolution convective-allowing models continue to suggest a trend toward more isolated to widely scattered coverage. As we move into Sunday, the shortwave feature will gradually lift northeastward across the region, sustaining low-to-moderate rain chances through Sunday evening before diminishing.
Transient upper-level ridging building in early next week will yield a brief period of dry and relatively benign weather before the arrival of our next storm system toward mid-week. There are still notable structural details and model discrepancies to resolve over the coming days, particularly regarding the precise southern trajectory of the upper-level low and its overall translation speed across the Southeast. For the time being, we will carry moderate probabilities (40-60%) for showers and thunder, given that robust moisture recovery is expected ahead of the advancing cold front.
16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT SAT OCT 31 2026
A shortwave disturbance will begin to move through the region over the next 24-hours, increasing rain probabilities at all terminals. While VFR conditions are still expected for this entire TAF period, -RA will begin at TCL by 31/20z and gradually move east into the next forecast period.
/44/
FIRE WEATHER
A surge of deeper moisture is expected to move into Central Alabama on Saturday, leading to relative humidity values remaining well above 50 percent through much of next week. Rain chances will steadily increase late Saturday evening through Sunday as moisture deepens. A returning dry airmass should allow conditions to dry out once again heading into Monday and Tuesday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Gadsden | 78 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 70% | 20% |
| Anniston | 77 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 10% | 20% | 70% | 30% |
| Birmingham | 77 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 20% | 50% | 70% | 30% |
| Tuscaloosa | 78 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 30% | 60% | 70% | 30% |
| Calera | 76 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 57 ℉ | 20% | 50% | 70% | 30% |
| Auburn | 76 ℉ | 60 ℉ | 68 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 10% | 10% | 40% | 30% |
| Montgomery | 80 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 71 ℉ | 59 ℉ | 20% | 30% | 60% | 30% |
| Troy | 80 ℉ | 61 ℉ | 70 ℉ | 58 ℉ | 10% | 30% | 60% | 30% |
BMX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
DISCUSSION...16 AVIATION.../44/