Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog will continue overnight over far southwest North Dakota and portions of the James River Valley, with patchy to areas of fog elsewhere.

- High chances for rain across most of the state Sunday night through Monday night. Rainfall could exceed 1 inch (60 to 90 percent chance) along and southeast of a line from Linton to Jamestown.

- Near to above average temperatures and drier weather favored mid to late next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Ended up issuing a Dense Fog Advisory for the James River Valley. Quite a few webcams showing low vsbys and a quarter to half mile at Jamestown and Carrington. Cams are suggesting an improvement in vsby from south to north later tonight. Opted to go ahead and issue the advisory and cancel if/when needed. No other changes at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 505 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Widespread stratus will remain across western and central ND tonight. Only adjustments early this evening were to increase sky cover to cloudy, all areas through the day Sunday. There are still some lower Vsbys in the far southwest so will keep the advisory going. It seems more likely than not that vsbys here will worsen tonight. A SPS continues in the James River Valley for fog. Will continue to monitor for a continuation or possible Dense Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Current surface analysis places low stretching from eastern Wyoming into eastern Colorado, with high over the eastern Great Lakes. Upper level analysis places low off the west coast, with tilted ridge stretching from the Ohio River Valley into the Upper Midwest. Over our area, low level moisture continues to lift in ahead and around the aforementioned surface low, resulting in low clouds along with some fog over our area. Some of the fog continues to be dense over far southwest North Dakota where a Dense Fog Advisory remains in places.

For tonight, low clouds will remain in place along with areas of fog. With not much relief in visibility expected over the far southwest, have decided to extend the Dense Fog Advisory through the overnight hours into early Sunday morning. Occasional periods of drizzle and/or light rain will be possible as a variety of weak waves lift through the upper flow ahead of the aforementioned Pacific system which will move well onshore overnight. Temperatures will remain quite mild overnight for this time of year.

On Sunday, clouds will remain over the area given the aforementioned moisture in place, with temperatures continuing to be rather mild. A few waves passing through will continue to bring occasional precipitation chances through the day, but this will be on a notable increase from southwest to northeast overnight. Aforementioned Pacific system will push over the Rockies overnight, with a surface low deepening over Colorado before ejecting into the central plains.

As we get into Monday, high precipitation chances will continue over the area as surface low lifts from the central plains into the upper Midwest. Widespread rains over the area are expected, with the greatest rainfall expected over southeastern portions of the area. Latest NBM guidance now indicates a 60 to 90 percent of seeing 1 inch of rain or greater along and southeast of a line from Linton to Jamestown, with a 50 to 70 percent chance of seeing 2 inches or more over the southern James River Valley which includes Edgeley, LaMoure, Ellendale, and Oakes. In addition, with the surface low shifting northeast, winds will be on the increase over the area, especially along the South Dakota border where latest guidance indicates north-northwesterly winds with gusts to 45 mph possible.

Thereafter some questions remain with the forecast as ensemble guidance has been leaning towards ridging, but some deterministic guidance continues to lean towards a bit more active pattern with some modest short wave troughs moving through. NBM temperatures spreads continue to indicate near to above average temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 505 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Low stratus will remain over the forecast area through the 00Z TAF period. Currently, mostly MVFR to IFR ceilings across western and central ND, with a few areas of LIFR ceilings in the southwest and James River Valley. These areas area also were IFR or lower VSBYS are located in fog. Expect areas of LIFR cigs/vsbys to expand through the evening and into Sunday, with a little improvement possible some areas by Sunday afternoon. East to southeast winds 5-15 kts tonight becoming southeast to south on Sunday 5-15 kts.

BIS WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CDT Sunday for NDZ025-036-037- 047-048-050-051. Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM MDT Sunday for NDZ040-043-044.