Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Increasing chances for thunderstorms today, encompassing strong wind gusts and flooding as the primary hazards.

- Precipitation chances pick up toward the end of the week and into the weekend, with highs that may be down in the 70s to close out the weekend.

SHORT TERM

(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Lee surface low will track southeast into the northern Panhandles by late morning. This will bring a fairly substantial cold front with it and we'll have north to northwest winds behind the front. That will also result in ample lift that will support scattered to numerous storms across the southwest to northeast Panhandles. Best chance for storms will be around 4pm today along the highway 60 corridor from Hereford to Canadian as this will be when peak heating and limited CIN along that frontal boundary will lead to storm development. This will also lead to a significant difference in highs across the Panhandles. The northwest to the southeast will have differences of nearly 20 degrees, with low 80s in the northwest and over 100 in the far southeast. Rain rates with the storms that form in the afternoon will be pretty substantial as PWAT's will range from 1.50-1.80" and given the forcing potential with the front, will not rule out strong to severe storms Tuesday evening. Shear is marginal (around 20kts) so there may be some factors against severe weather. Showers and storms will likely continue through the evening and into the overnight, as the front retreats a bit to the northwest, so will the shower activity. So pops will still be in the 30 to 50 percent range for the northwest overnight. As we move into Wednesday the upper level ridge over the Mississippi Valley will begin to retrograde west and push that warmer and drier air over the Panhandles. Storm chances on Wednesday will be limited to the far western and northern Panhandles.

Weber

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

With the high over Western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma on Thursday we should be pretty warm and dry for the most part, and highs will once again be in the 90s. There's a very low chance <20 percent that showers/storms will occur in the far western Panhandle. As we move into Friday a combination of an upper trough from the Pacific Northwest and a closed low tracking into the Gulf from Florida will start to suppress the ridge and draw in some moisture to the western and central Panhandles. We'll be keeping an eye on just what this next frontal boundary does with the upper trough as it gets closer, and that will bring cooler temperatures and perhaps another round of showers and storms on Saturday. Highs are already progged to be in the 80s to maybe 90 in a few areas on Saturday, with Sunday in mostly 70s as the front will be through. Monday appears to be another mild day similar to Sunday, but there are some models hinting that warmer air may return, so we'll see.

Weber

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible to start the TAF period at KAMA as storms remain over the area, but that should be done by 7z. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions expected through at least 21z. Winds will still be a bit breezy out of the south, shifting more west to northwest at KDHT and KGUY after 14z. Once we get to the 18-21z time frame that's when we expect scattered to numerous storms to pop across the Panhandles. This will result in possible MVFR/IFR conditions at all TAF sites, and PROB30's have been noted to cover these storms.

Weber

AMA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

TX...None. OK...None.