Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion.

Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the nearshore coastal waters north of Cape Charles through early Saturday, and remain in effect for the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River and the southern nearshore coastal waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week.

2) Rain chances have continued to trend down for early next week, with no precipitation currently in the forecast. Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures to start the month of November.

DISCUSSION

As of 240 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry, seasonable weather for Halloween weekend continues into early next week.

Early afternoon wx analysis shows ~1028mb high pressure centered over the upper Great Lakes, ridging SE toward the local area. The well-advertised dry cold front drops across the region over the next few hours, with winds becoming N-NW behind the frontal passage. No real cold air advection just yet...allowing for one more warm day across the region. 18z Obs were well into the 70s over the area, with some readings in the lower 80s across the piedmont.

CAA arrives tonight, with winds increasing and veering around the N then NNE tonight and overnight. Temps fall into the 40s in most areas, with lower 50s in coastal SE VA/NE NC with the flow off the water. Cooler, dry, and pleasant on Halloween, with highs in the lower to middle 60s. Given the cool, dry airmass and diminishing winds, temps fall off quickly (to the upper 40s-50s) during the evening. High pressure builds over the area tomorrow night through Sunday. Lows Sunday morning drop into the low-mid 40s by Sunday morning, with even cooler readings possible Monday morning. Turning slightly milder (upper 60s) on Sunday with some additional clouds Sunday morning ahead of an weakening shortwave approaching from the SW.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances have continued to trend down for early next week, with no precipitation currently in the forecast. Rain chances may return by Thursday with above average temperatures to start the month of November.

The chance for measurable rainfall continues to decrease for Sunday night into Monday despite the passage of the previously referenced shortwave. Despite considerable cloudiness, low-level moisture will be significantly lacking. Looking ahead, a gradual warming trend takes place early next week, as low amplitude upper ridging builds east across the region, as surface high pressure moves well offshore. Widespread lower-mid 70s appear likely on both days. Precipitation chances finally return to the forecast by next Thursday-Thursday night as a stronger low pressure system potentially tracks from the Mississippi River Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. However, forecast confidence in this potential welcome rainfall remains understandably low given the timing.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 210 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions across area terminals looks to persist through the 18z/30 TAF period. Generally light NW winds early this afternoon, becoming gusty out of the N-NW in the next few hours. A dry cold front crosses the area tonight, which will allow winds to become NNE late tonight through Saturday. The wind should remain high enough tonight to preclude any fog development.

Outlook: Dry weather and VFR conditions are expected through at least Sunday. Remaining dry through the weekend and likely into early next week. The next chance for rain comes late next week.

MARINE

As of 305 PM EDT Friday...

- A northerly wind surge brings Small Craft Advisory conditions for the Chesapeake Bay, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters tonight into Saturday morning.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail for the weekend into early next week with E-NE flow.

Sub-SCA W-NW winds are in place across the waters this afternoon. There is a large area of high pressure centered over the northern Plains and western Great Lakes, though it extends well SE into the most of the eastern CONUS. There is also a diffuse cold front that stretches from coastal New England into the OH/TN Valley. Winds should remain <10 kt through sunset today, before cold air advection behind that cold front brings a quick increase in northerly winds by later this evening. The current forecast has these winds increasing to 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, highest on the coastal waters and lower Chesapeake Bay. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all of our Chesapeake Bay zones, lower James River, Currituck Sound, and all of the 0-20 nm coastal water zones. Note that these were expanded to include the zones N of Cape Charles with this afternoon update. Given the N-NNE wind direction, seas also quickly increase to 4-6 ft, highest in the southern waters and potentially up to 7 ft in the 20-60 offshore zones. Winds quickly diminish later Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon, with seas slowly following. SCAs drop off mid-morning in the bay, sound, and lower James and in the afternoon for the ocean due to those lingering higher seas.

High pressure builds southward into the area for the later half of the weekend into early next week. Sub-SCA E-NE winds will prevail during this time with 2-4 ft seas and 1-2 ft waves in the bay.

AKQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-634-639. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ656-658.