Area Forecast Discussion

SYNOPSIS

Key Messages:

- Another dry and pleasant day for the panhandle, with increasing clouds during the afternoon.

- A front will swing through the Gulf today and into the panhandle over the weekend, with gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain possible.

- The wet and active pattern will continue into next week as multiple fronts and low pass through southeast Alaska.

SHORT TERM.../through Saturday night/

Mainly clear skies and light winds overnight have allowed temperatures to plummet well into the 20s across much of central and northern panhandle. Some patchy radiation fog has developed as well. Expect an increase in mid to high clouds later today as the occluded front extending out from a slow moving out out in the Bering Sea pushes through the Gulf of Alaska. The front will reach NE Gulf Coast tonight, bringing moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds to Yakutat. The front will slow as it reaches the panhandle on Saturday. The stream of moderate to heavy rain ahead of the front will slowly push into northern panhandle and Sitka on Saturday, then shift into the central and southern panhandle through Saturday night. South to southeasterly winds will build and become gusty on Saturday across the panhandle with advisory level gusts (40+ mph) possibly developing for many coastal communities. Snow levels are expected to be low enough tonight along the upper Klondike Highway and near the Canadian border along the Haines Highway. Through Saturday night, two to four inches possible near White Pass and around an inch near Dalton Cache. Afternoon temps will generally be in the 40s. Low temps will generally be in the 30s tonight, slightly warmer Saturday night in the mid 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/

The front will continue to push eastward through Sunday, bringing rain to the southern panhandle beginning early in the morning and lasting through the night. At the time of the Thursday night forecast and model guidance, the main concern Sunday is looking to be the winds for the far southern panhandle. After the initial front, a meso low looks to move in from the south into the eastern Gulf, sliding up along the coastline from Haida Gwaii up into the panhandle. The uncertainty of this is largely how strong this feature will develop, and what track it will be as it moves up along the coast and into the panhandle. Some model guidance is hinting towards elevated winds and periods of higher gusts along the southern coast of PoW, including Hydaburg, and for Annette Island, as well as elevated winds into Clarence Strait itself as the low passes closely along the west coast of PoW. However, the lack of agreement on the path and strength of this meso low gives uncertainty on how high these winds will get, as well as if instead the elevated winds will be further northward and impact more along the central panhandle. It is currently expected that the southern coastline may see a period of gusts up to 40 mph Sunday, or higher if the solution with higher winds pans out. There is higher confidence in the southern panhandle, including PoW and Ketchikan, seeing moderate rain rates with some periods of heavy rain on Sunday, with between 1 and 2 inches expected in 24 hours.

This wetter and more active pattern is expected to continue into early next week as, with the next system beginning to develop and move into the Gulf and impact the panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION.../through 12Z Saturday/

Conditions remain mainly VFR with a couple exceptions early Friday morning. A marine layer lingers offshore of Yakutat, at about 2,500-3,000ft, bringing BKN to OVC clouds ahead of the incoming front. A low stratus layer has also begun to establish itself in Icy Strait, brining CIGs between 1,000-1,500ft to PAGS and PAOH. PAPG has seen some freezing dense fog this morning as temperatures sit below freezing and VIS is about 1/4SM. PAJN is also seeing some patchy fog this morning, but has had a minimal impact on VIS. It is possible that clouds/fog will linger in these locations through the mid morning before the sun rises and begins to bring temps up. Through the period, expect conditions to begin to deteriorate, especially at PAYA as a frontal system moves toward the panhandle. Rain chances at PAYA begin to increase around 0Z with high confidence of rain by 6Z. Before the rain, gusty winds are expected to pick up around 22Z and last through the period. Wind across the northern panhandle is expected to begin to increase around 0Z ahead of the front, but rain chances are not expected to increase until after 12Z Saturday. Conditions across the south are likely to remain VFR through the period, with the potential for winds to begin picking up ahead of the front by 12Z Saturday. CIGs are also likely to become BKN to OVC ahead of the front later in the Friday but remain AoA 4,500ft. LLWS is not a major concern for the period. PAYA and PAGY are likely to see wind up to 40KT around 2,000ft late Friday night, but there is no directional component that would call for the inclusion of wind shear in the TAF. Most LLWS concern would fall outside of the TAF period.

MARINE

Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Building south to southeasterly winds and seas today as a gale force front pushes into and through the Gulf and coastal water today into Saturday. Widespread gales will expand west to east across the Gulf and into the outer coastal waters through tonight into Saturday. Easterly storm force winds expected this afternoon into tonight near from Icy Cape to Cape Suckling. Seas will build and become 15 to 20 feet. Winds will diminish from west to east as the front slowly pushes into the panhandle Saturday night into Sunday, although a meso low developing along the front could keep gales and large seas for the central and southern outer coastal waters. For next week, the active pattern continues with multiple gale to storm force systems and large seas expected over the outside waters.

Inside (Inner Channels): South to southeasterly winds slowly building through the inner channels as front approaches, becoming moderate to fresh tonight. As the front slowly pushes inland over the weekend, fresh to strong winds and elevated seas are expected and Small Craft Advisories have been issued for most inner channels. Gales could develop into Clarence Strait and possibly into Sumner and southern Chatham Strait Saturday night into Sunday as a meso low along the front lifts north and tightens the gradient over the southern panhandle. For next week, the active pattern continues with multiple gale to storm force systems and elevated seas expected for the inside waters.

AJK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

PUBLIC...None. MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ652. Gale Warning for PKZ642>644-651-661>664-671-672. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ013-021-022-031>034-036-053-641.