Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog may develop early this morning. The main areas of concern will be over parts of north central South Dakota and the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills. Visibility may drop to a mile or less at times.

- Rain showers move over the forecast area Friday evening into Saturday morning. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance to see a tenth of an inch of rain mainly east of the James River and south of Hwy 212.

- More widespread, heavier rainfall is expected Sunday night through Tuesday as a low pressure center moves into the Pains. While there is low confidence in timing and amounts at this time, the chance to see an inch of rain ranges from 50 to 75 percent along and east of the Missouri River.

UPDATE

Issued at 934 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Forecast remains on track this morning, and no changes have been made. Some isolated patches of fog are lingering this morning over north central South Dakota as well as western Minnesota. Webcam observations indicate that this fog is highly localized, but in the heaviest fog visibility of one mile or lower is still possible. Any lingering fog is expected to dissipate within the next couple of hours at the latest.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

As of 1 AM CDT, temperatures across the region are in the upper 30s to low 40s with winds out of the northeast to southeast at generally less than 10 mph. There is potential for fog this morning across north central SD and the eastern side of the Sisseton Hills but winds are a bit high and there isn't much moisture sitting around. If fog does form, it should burn off by mid morning. The rest of the day is expected to be cloudy, except for some afternoon clearing north of Hwy 12 and east of US 281. Highs today will be in the 50s.

The main story for the forecast will be our precipitation chances. The first will be Friday night into Saturday and the second, more widespread and wet event starting Monday. A low pressure system will sit just off the lee side of the Rockies Friday with a front moving up from the south and kicking off some light showers through the day Saturday. Total accumulations of a couple hundredths are expected. A low pressure system will move in from the west Monday, exiting the region Tuesday. We could continue to see some wrap around moisture through Wednesday morning. PWAT values Monday are generally between 1 and 1.25 inches across the forecast area, in the 99th or above NAEFS percentile. These PWAT values start to decrease towards 0.5 inches through the day Tuesday. The potential for more than an inch of precipitation from Monday morning through Wednesday morning is 50 to 75% along and east of the Missouri River. The chance for more than 2 inches during the same time frame is 40 to 50% in the northern portion of the James Valley and along the I-29 corridor.

Temperatures for the first half of the forecast will be 10 to 15 degrees above average before colder air moves in behind the low and drops temps down to around average. Winds the next few days will gust around 25 mph during the afternoon hours. Monday, with the incoming low, winds will increase to 35-40 mph across most of the forecast area, perhaps reaching 45 mph or higher across central SD. Fog will also be possible after the rain Saturday, however, cloud cover may keep this from materializing.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon. Light rain and MVFR cigs will spread over the region this evening, falling to IFR in the early morning after 9z.

ABR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

SD...None. MN...None.