Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1159 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026 - Light rain showers and high terrain snow will move across central, southern, and southeastern New Mexico Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1159 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

Breezy conditions continue across eastern NM this late morning to early afternoon as a backdoor front continues to slide across the area. Winds are very likely to gradually subside through the afternoon and into the evening, and in turn will leave behind below average high temperatures for today (mid 50s to low 60s). Elsewhere across the state, minor ridging aloft will lead to light winds and mainly clear skies with temperatures similar to eastern NM. Temperatures tonight across the state drop into the low 40s to mid 30s, with some spots flirting with freezing in eastern NM behind the front. Higher elevation locations drop into the 20s, with locally colder areas in valleys.

Into tomorrow, a shortwave trough continues to progress into the Intermountain West (currently located over central CA), which is then forecast to develop into a closed low as it pushes further south into AZ by midday Friday. The overall moisture content of this closed low is nothing to write home about as PWAT values are forecast to be in the 0.3-0.5" range. Nevertheless, diffluence aloft ahead of the low will influence the development of scattered to locally numerous showers across western NM in the early afternoon hours before spreading across southern NM through the evening hours. Lifted Indices are forecast to be between 1C and -1C across portions of western NM, so cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder. However, a majority of the precipitation tomorrow is likely to be rain showers with no lightning. As the showers move into southern NM into the evening, a few showers may be able to make it as far north as the ABQ metro. From Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning, the highest precipitation amounts are most likely to fall from just south of Clines Corners to Mountainair to the Socorro/Sierra County line. Precipitation amounts are most likely to remain up to 0.25" in most places, with a low chance of localized amounts up to 0.75. Snow levels are most likely to be between 8,500-9,500ft, though with low overall precipitation amounts expected, a light dusting to at most a few tenths of an inch are possible above these elevations in southern NM. Overall, impacts from these showers are expected to be minimal. The shortwave will continue to trek to the south away from the state through Saturday, leaving any lingering showers throughout the daytime in the southeast corner of our forecast area.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1159 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

After the shortwave passes, pleasant weather is likely throughout the long term period and potentially stretching even further. Pressure heights will gradually rise throughout next week, bringing a slow but gradual rise in temperatures each day. Winds are looking to be primarily light with only a few breezes across the state. The exception to this looks to be Wednesday as a trough digs over the upper Great Plains. This is currently forecast to drop a cold front down the Front Range and into eastern NM, however there is only moderate confidence with this at the moment given some sharp disagreement between deterministic models on timing. A return to some unsettled weather may be in store for next weekend, but significant model and ensemble spread exists for how a system affecting the Pacific Coast moves inland.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1032 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

A backdoor cold front continues to push down the plains of eastern NM, bringing gusts up to 25-35kts from KCAO down to KROW. Winds from the front are expected to gradually lower throughout the day, with gusts likely diminishing by 22-00z. A shield of high clouds is expected to move into western NM this evening, then spread to the rest of the state through the overnight hours. Isolated showers may begin to develop in western NM near the end of the TAF period, with further development expected after 18z tomorrow. Elsewhere, generally light winds and VFR conditions prevail.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1159 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next several days at least. Breezy north to northeast winds across eastern NM will taper off slowly throughout the afternoon and evening today. Showers across portions of western, central, and southern NM tomorrow may bring rainfall amounts up to 0.25" in a few locations. A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, primarily across western NM. A light dusting of snow may also occur at elevations primarily above 9,000ft. After showers move out by Saturday evening, calm weather and gradually rising temperatures are expected through next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

ABQ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

None.