Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the end forecast period, with dangerous and potentially record breaking temperatures expected beginning Thursday.

* Isolated thunderstorm activity will be limited to Mohave County through Tuesday, with things drying out area-wide during the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

through Sunday.

Dry conditions prevail across the region this afternoon with just a scattering of fair weather cumulus across the southern Great Basin and northwest Arizona. We may see an isolated shower or thunderstorm across northern Mohave County by this evening but in general drier conditions have overspread the area with limited convective coverage expected the remainder of the week going forward.

As the moisture profile decreases, our focus will shift to warming temperatures late in the week as a large H500mb ridge builds westward out of the Southern Plains. Ensemble agreement remains high for an expansive 600dm high to build across the Southwest Friday and Saturday, which may challenge all-time August records for some locations across the Mojave Desert region. This will also result in widespread high to extreme heat risk across much of the middle and lower elevations for several days in a row. For more information regarding exactly which records are in jeopardy later this week, see the CLIMATE section below.

AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package

South-southwest winds continue with gusts around 20 kts. Winds reduce and gusts cut off after 04z. Temperatures look to stay above 100 degrees until slightly before 05z. Winds look to become lighter into mid Tuesday morning and become more southeasterly. These winds will become southwesterly again tuesday afternoon with gusts around 18 kts. These winds will reduce in the late evening on Tuesday, becoming light through that night. Mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Breezy winds are affecting most the region with gusts peaking around 20 kts that will last into the mid evening to early night before reducing. The exception will be KDAG which has westerly gusts building through the evening , peaking closer to 25 kts, and not reducing until the late night/early Tuesday. Winds don't look to increase again until the late morning and early afternoon on Tuesday. Mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF period.

CLIMATE

Numerous climate locations have a forecast high temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX THU, JUL 30 FRI, JUL 31 SAT, AUG 1 SUN, AUG 2 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record (Yr)

Las Vegas 114(1978)* 115(1978)* 116(1979)* 115(1979)* Bishop 105(2020)* 109(2000)* 108(2020)* 108(2020)* Needles 120(2020) 121(2020)* 121(1993)* 120(1993) Daggett 114(2000) 113(2020)* 115(1995)* 117(1986)* Kingman 110(2020) 112(2020) 106(2020)* 105(1918)* Desert Rock 109(2000) 109(1996)* 109(1993)* 109(1993)* Death Valley 127(1995) 125(2020)* 127(2017)* 126(1993)*

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN THU, JUL 30 FRI, JUL 31 SAT, AUG 1 SUN, AUG 2 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record (Yr)

Las Vegas 89(2019)* 88(2020)* 92(2020)* 91(2024)* Bishop 72(2022) 67(2018) 71(2007) 71(2007) Needles 94(2019) 94(1925) 95(1969) 92(1980)* Daggett 86(2016) 85(2018) 84(2000)* 83(2018)* Kingman 83(1972) 83(1914)* 82(1914)* 82(2008)* Desert Rock 81(2015) 82(2016) 83(2000)* 86(2000) Death Valley 103(2018) 103(2018) 106(1920) 100(2024)*

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures.