Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Dangerous heat conditions Sunday and likely continue through at least Tuesday.

- Potential minor cool down and some chance of showers and storms from mid to late week but uncertainties remain.

SHORT TERM

(Through Monday ) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominate feature across the southern and central Plains through Monday. Underneath the ridge, hot and humid conditions also remain common across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas into Monday, with high temperatures of upper 90s to around 104 degrees and heat index values in the 105 to 115 degree range. Winds so far today have been slow to mix dewpoints across northeast Oklahoma, and as such have upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning west of Highway 75 and also for Ottawa co. The rest of the current heat headlines seemed to be in good shape at this time. Winds are forecast to be slightly more breezy Monday, and have issued a Heat Advisory for the entire CWA for Monday afternoon. Depending on how dewpoints mix out Monday afternoon, there is potential for parts of northeast Oklahoma and also the River Valley of west central Arkansas to be upgraded to a Warning.

Not much relief is anticipated tonight either with lows only getting into the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. With these conditions through Monday, continue to take necessary heat precautions.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

High pressure begins to retreat westward starting Tuesday, which opens the door for a few shortwaves to slide down the eastern periphery of the ridge through the region for the second half of the forecast period. Latest model solutions indicate the first of these waves and associated weak frontal boundary approaching the CWA Tuesday. Ahead of the boundary, continued hot and humid conditions continue with the potential for pooling moisture along/near the Oklahoma Kansas border as the boundary approaches. Thus, additional heat headlines are likely again Tuesday afternoon.

The boundary is forecast to move into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday and potentially set up from northwest to southeast over northeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Slight to low end chances for showers/storms develop mainly along and east of this boundary, closer to the weak low pressure center. This activity looks to exit Wednesday night.

Timing differences/strength of the second shortwave shows up in the data Thursday/Friday. However, the boundary or some form of the boundary from Wednesday looks to remain over the region which could spark another slight to low end chance for showers/storms again for the eastern half of the CWA Thursday afternoon and Friday. Details with the rain chances and the boundary location will determine the degree to any cooler conditions for the CWA late week.

In the extended forecast period, model solutions continue to highlight a more defined wave and cold front trying to push southeast through the Plains next weekend. Precip chances extend into Saturday for parts of the region, while conditions more closer to seasonal average develop for the CWA for next weekend. Timing and details will continue to be revamped through the week, but there is potential for a break in the current hot/humid conditions.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. South to southwest winds will become light and variable after sunset this evening, staying out of the south or southwest and increasing some again by late morning Monday. FEW-SCT midlevel clouds, with bases around 7-10 kft, and SCT-BKN high clouds will occur through the daytime Monday.

Mejia

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TSA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-063-068- 069-073-075-172-276-376.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053- 055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>062- 064>067-070-071-074-154-176-254-272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011- 119-120-229.

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010- 011-119-120-129-219-220-229.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219- 220.