Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Rain chances continue for parts of northeast Oklahoma through this afternoon, becoming more widespread Friday night/Saturday. - Shower and storm chances increase again early next week, a limited severe potential will exist Monday afternoon.

- A cold front early next week will drop temperatures closer to seasonal average by midweek.

SHORT TERM

(Through tonight) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Scattered light to moderate showers continue mainly across portions of northeast Oklahoma as a weak mid level wave slowly lifts northeastward across west Texas. Some isolated thunder remains possible through the mid afternoon along the Oklahoma/Kansas border where limited instability has developed. Overall rain amounts will remain light, with a few isolated pockets of a quarter to half inch of rain possible where heavier showers or storms develop. A lull in precipitation is expected from mid afternoon through the evening as the initial piece of energy leaves the local region. Widespread cloud cover with occasional showers will keep temperatures nearly steady through the rest of the afternoon across eastern Oklahoma, with highs ranging from near 70 to the upper 70s from west to east respectively.

Rain chances will begin to increase again later this evening into the overnight hours as the main wave lifts into western Oklahoma. Trends continue to suggest a decrease in rain amounts, particularly across eastern Oklahoma as better rain chances shift eastward into western Arkansas into Saturday morning. Still, at least scattered showers should spread across the area tonight with most locations seeing at least some measurable precipitation through the period.

Bowlan

LONG TERM

(Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Rain chances continue through much of the day Saturday across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, while drier conditions are forecast across the western half of the CWA. Cloudy and rainy conditions will keep temperatures down again on Saturday as highs will trend near 70 for most of the area Saturday afternoon. Generally light amounts can be expected again on Saturday with isolated pockets up to a half inch possible across western Arkansas. Weak mid level ridging builds in behind the exiting wave on Sunday, providing a brief break in the rain chances. Afternoon highs will rebound as well into the upper 70s under partly cloudy skies.

Attention will then be on the main impact maker through this forecast period as a dynamic upper level system moves into the area on Monday. A more potent upper level trough will move on shore the west coast over the weekend and eject out over the Plains during the day Monday. At the same time, a surface low will develop and deepen over the Central Plains before lifting northeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley late in the day Monday, with an attendant cold front stretching southwestward from the surface low. Increasing southerly flow, with surface wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph possible Monday afternoon, will bring ample low level moisture into the local region by Monday afternoon. Scattered showers are likely to be ongoing Monday morning within a strong warm advection region noted by a 40 to 50 knot 850hPa jet. How these showers evolve will likely play a role in the strong to severe potential later in the day. Current consensus is that an increasing risk for strong to severe thunderstorms will become possible by mid afternoon Monday ahead of the southeastward moving cold front. Sufficient instability, MUCAPE around 1000J/kg, along with bulk shear values around 50 knots will support both supercell and more organized linear structures along the strongly forced cold front. Damaging wind gusts look to be the main threat with the stronger storms as relatively weak mid level lapse rates don't look supportive of large hail at this point. A tornado threat could also evolve for a short time at the onset of stronger storms as forecast hodographs show sufficient turning of low level winds ahead of the front. Current timing suggests that the most notable threat will evolve across mainly central Oklahoma, into parts of eastern Oklahoma generally along and west of a Bartlesville to McAlester to Hugo line. Instability is forecast to drop off rapidly after sunset, and thus the more potent severe threat will wane into the evening hours as the front pushes southeastward.

In addition to the severe threat, the increasing moisture will provide anomalously high PWAT values. Thus, areas of flash flooding could evolve over more urban or flood prone areas as higher rain rates occur with the stronger thunderstorms. The rest of the forecast period will be noted by mainly dry conditions with cooler, more normal early November temperatures on tap in the wake of the front. Widespread lows in the 40s are likely for several days, while some locations across the north drop into the 30s at times.

Bowlan

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Patchy fog may continue to impact KBVO/KRVS/KFYV early this morning before lifting. Scattered showers may occur at the eastern Oklahoma sites this morning into early afternoon, with the greatest impacts likely at KBVO. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TSA WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. AR...None.