Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will continue to be the primary concerns with storms that develop.

- Gusty northeast winds will produce hazardous marine conditions by mid-week across eastern Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Ridge of high pressure has shifting north. This has shifted our wind flow to an easterly direction. This will change our timing of shower activity with inland areas seeing them in the afternoon while coastal areas see in the late afternoon and evening hours.

As we head into our Wednesday an upper level low will start to approach the state. Ahead of the low we will see dryer air especially along and north of I-4 where showers will not be expected. At the same time at the surface winds will start to increase our of the east. We will see sustained wind around 15 mph and with gust as high as 25. This upper level low will start to push through on Thursday. As it does so winds will stay elevated and drier air will remain north of I-4. The upper level low will move away from the state on Friday as winds start to calm down. Even though we will see enough moisture aloft for storms both Thursday and Friday the upper level low will bring some drier air at the surface. This will allow morning lows to be slightly cooler with most of us in the low to mid 70's instead of the mid to upper 70's. Dewpoints and temperatures could drop into the upper 60's for some inland area along the Nature Coast.

By the weekend the upper level low will be gone as easterly flow continues. This will result in storm chances favoring the west coast once again through the weekend and next Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Wind flow has shifted more easterly thanks to the upper level ridge shifting north. This will result in early afternoon storms inland with late afternoon and evening storms along the west coast.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Ridge has shifted north which will shift winds more easterly around 5 to 10 knots. An upper level low will start to approach the area on Wednesday and push through Florida Thursday. This will result in winds to quickly pick up out of the east. These winds will peak Wednesday night with 20 to 25 knots with gust up to 30. By Friday the upper level low will start to push away resulting in winds slowly coming down. By Saturday afternoon wind speeds will return to 5 to 10 knots out of the southeast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Deeper layer moisture remain over the state which will bring scattered showers and storms across the state through mid week. We will not have any major fire weather concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Thursday for Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.