Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light showers will move east to west across areas around I-4 southward again tomorrow afternoon and evening.

- Higher shower chances with a few thunderstorms possible late Sunday and into Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 740 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

No adjustments planned for the evening update. Ridging aloft sits atop the state while surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes ridges southward into the area, with the local gradient enhanced by a surface trough analyzed over S FL. Satellite and radar show cu/stratocu and associated isolated showers racing west across the peninsula embedded in the brisk E/NE flow, mainly along and south of I-4, with mid/upper clouds streaming eastward over the N Peninsula and Panhandle ahead of a shortwave currently ejecting over the Srn Plains and Lower MS Valley that will lead to our increased late weekend rain chances. The overnight period will see diminishing showers but the potential for additional low cloud development as moisture continues to gradually increase over the local area, with mild conditions and lows mainly in the lower 70s. Deeper moisture lifts north into the area on Saturday with increasing rain chances, particularly central and southern areas where isolated to scattered showers are expected during the afternoon and evening under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 Upper-level ridging remains across Florida today with surface high pressure over the southeastern U.S. This pattern generally remains in place through tomorrow, with east-northeast winds continuing along with a few showers moving east to west each afternoon. As we head into Sunday, a disturbance aloft will move across the northern Gulf coast and eventually over Florida through Monday. This will enhance lift across the region and help generate numerous showers and a few thunderstorms across the local area. Highest rain chances are during the daytime hours on Sunday, then rain will generally end west to east on Monday as the disturbance and the surface low that tries to form both shift out of the area. High pressure will then build back in for most of the rest of the week before a front approaches and moves through the region Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Generally VFR expected through the period, but again with the caveat of some low cloud development potential overnight into Saturday morning for most terminals as moisture continues to gradually increase locally. This evening's hi-res and MOS guidance are less aggressive regarding tonight's potential in comparison to last night when MVFR to IFR cigs affected terminals for some period of time. Again am opting to keep cigs VFR this cycle given the more muted signal, however, confidence remains lower than normal. Winds remain E/NE and brisk, generally 8-12 knots with higher gusts mainly from late morning through much of the evening. VCSH mention returns Saturday afternoon as showers develop and push across the area briefly impacting terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 East-northeast winds to exercise caution and near advisory levels will remain over the waters through the next several days. Rain chances increase for Sunday into Monday, then high pressure and drier weather returns for mid-week with winds diminishing.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 223 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026 No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Rain chances increase for Sunday into Monday with numerous showers and a few storms expected, then high pressure

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.