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000 FXUS62 KTBW 261856 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 256 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...KEY MESSAGES
- Hot temperatures and humid conditions will create widespread heat index values of 102 to 107 degrees during each of the next several days.
- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with dangerous lightning will develop each day through the next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026
A frontal boundary to our north is increasing our moisture with the morning sounding showing PW around 2.3. It has also shifted our winds more northwesterly. This is evident as we can see most of the shower activity moving southeast. THe shower activity today should push more inland as we go through the late afternoon and evening hours.
The westerly winds and increased moisture over the area will keep us in a similiar pattern through Wednesday with morning showers coming off the Gulf that will slowly shift inland during the afternoon and evening hours.
On Thursday we will see an upper level trough dive down into the southeast. This will help to move the stalled boundary further south into Florida. This will help to increase moisture even more and bring widespread shower to the area through Saturday.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026
Storms will continue to slowly move inland through the rest of today. High res models continue to show morning shower activity along West Central Florida tomorrow so added VCSH and TEMPO SHRA for our northern sites.
MARINE
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026
A frontal boundary stalled in Georgia is helping to shift winds to the west and increase them to 10 to 15 knots. Moisture will also increase leading to overnight and morning showers in the Gulf that will push onto land in the late morning and early afternoon. This pattern will persist through next Tuesday. By Wednesday an upper level trough will push into the state helping to restrengthen the boundary. This will help to increase our westerly winds to 15 to 20 knots trough the rest of the work week.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 246 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026
A frontal boundary will push into the area on Sunday resulting in moisture increasing across the area. This will bring daily shower chances for the area through next Wednesday with no fire weather concerns.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| TPA | 81 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 20% | 60% | 30% | 40% |
| FMY | 78 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 20% | 20% | 40% | 60% |
| GIF | 77 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 95 ℉ | 10% | 60% | 10% | 40% |
| SRQ | 80 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 92 ℉ | 10% | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| BKV | 78 ℉ | 93 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 94 ℉ | 40% | 70% | 20% | 40% |
| SPG | 81 ℉ | 90 ℉ | 81 ℉ | 91 ℉ | 10% | 60% | 40% | 40% |
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
FL...None. Gulf waters...None.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley