Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will continue, although winds not quite as strong.

- Slight decrease in winds with a few showers possible through Friday, mainly inland and over southwest Florida.

UPDATE

Issued at 805 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Forecast on track with no adjustments planned this evening. High pressure to the north continues providing E/NE flow and W Atlantic moisture across the area, accompanied by partly to occasionaly mostly cloudy skies and widely scattered showers. While overall shower coverage will diminish overnight, areas of low cloudiness and perhaps spotty mist/patchy fog will be possible, particularly after midnight, before gradually improving Friday morning after sunrise. Expect overnight lows in the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Overall winds are starting to come down after a breezy last few days. This is due to the low pressure that has been sitting in the Atlantic finally starting to drift away. This means quite but warm conditions for the rest of our work week with temperatures remaining above average with highs in the mid 80's and lows around 70 degrees.

As we head into our weekend our next frontal system will be approaching the area. This will shift our upper level flow more westerly and southwesterly with increasing moisture on Saturday. This will result in shower activity returning to the area. Current models are showing the deeper moisture over SW Florida with PW above 2 inches. This is where we will see the best chance of rain with isolated showers for the rest of the area. The front itself will push through on Sunday. This will bring scattered to widespread showers to the whole area mainly in the morning and afternoon hours.

By Monday the front will be gone and we will see high pressure along the eastern seaboard. Models are not showing a huge change behind the front with Temperatures going down slightly as lows get into the mid 60's with highs around 80 degrees. These temperatures are around average for this time of year. These conditions will stick around through Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Mainly VFR expected through the period. Atlantic moisture advecting westward across the state will lead to a period of potential MVFR/LCL IFR cigs overnight into Friday morning, mainly in the 06-15Z timeframe. Latest hi-res and MOS guidance indicates highest potential over SWFL terminals where MVFR and TEMPO IFR cigs are indicated, with less certainty for northern terminals where VFR cigs are maintained this cycle for now. E/NE winds through the period generally 8-12 knots with higher gusts late morning through early evening.

MARINE

Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Winds will remain elevated out of the east around 15 to 20 knots for the rest of our week keeping SCEC in place. A front will approach the area and push through on Sunday. This will bring scattered showers across the area mainly on Sunday with winds remaining around 15 to 20 knots out of the east. We will dry out by early next week but winds in the Gulf will remain the same with speed around 15 to 20 knots out of the east.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Dry air will be in place through the rest of the week as winds have slowly come down. As we head into our weekend we will see a cold front approach the area with scattered to widespread showers expected on Sunday as the front passing. We will start to dry out once again early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TBW WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...None. Gulf waters...None.