Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 957 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Highs in the mid-90s today with heat indices ranging from 102 to 107 degrees. There is a medium (30 to 50%) chance of advisory level heat in the Suwannee Valley of Georgia and Florida. The heat will affect those without adequate cooling or hydration.

- Hazardous heat returns on Monday and continues into midweek with highs in the mid-90s to around 100 degrees. There is a High (80%) chance of reaching Heat Advisory criteria (Heat Index 108-112F). There is also a Medium (30%) probability of Extreme HeatRisk from the Gulf Coast into the I-10 corridor, which affects everyone.

UPDATE

Issued at 957 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

No updates to the forecast this morning. Upper level clouds from a decaying complex of storms across central GA/AL still appear on track to bring enough cloud cover to mitigate widespread advisory level heat this afternoon. However, it wouldn't be surprising if a few localized areas across the southeast Florida Big Bend, or immediately along the Gulf Coast briefly hit a 108 heat index this afternoon.

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM

(Today through Saturday) Issued at 1236 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Renewed shower and thunderstorm activity today along with greater cloud over should preclude advisory-level heat. The caveat is is if convection holds off until later in the day and/or there is less cloud cover - mainly in Lowndes, Madison, Taylor, Dixie and Lafayette - then advisory level heat (criteria: heat index 108-112F) would be possible. At this time, the probability of that happening is 30 to 50%. Otherwise, heat indices will range from 102-107 F across much of the region, and the heat will affect those without adequate cooling or hydration.

A complex of showers/storms to our northwest this morning should weaken as it approaches the region w/additional showers/storms developing early this afternoon. Good coverage today with PWATs increasing to over 2 inches (well above climo). Northwest mid- level flow of 15-20 kts and healthy DCAPE should support gusty winds, with isolated damaging wind gusts possible.

From the early to middle part of next week, Northwest flow continues aloft and PWATs decrease. This will set the stage for increasing heat, as shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to be minimal until Wednesday or Thursday. The only caveat is that we will have to watch for Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) to the Northwest - Cannot rule out one making it into our region late Monday or Monday night.

The big story will be hazardous heat returning by Monday and continuing into midweek with highs in the mid-90s to around 100 degrees. There is a High (80%) chance of reaching Heat Advisory criteria (Heat Index 108-112F). There is also a Medium (30%) probability of Extreme HeatRisk from the Gulf Coast into the I-10 corridor, which affects everyone. There is also a 20-40% chance of daily record highs at TLH and ABY being tied on Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 155 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

For the next 24 hours, northwest flow aloft will prevail within a seasonably moist and unstable air mass. Therefore, the timing and extent of afternoon and evening thunderstorms is the main forecast issue at the terminals.

There will be two main foci for convective development. First in the early afternoon, seabreeze activity will develop. With NW flow aloft, the seabreeze will be pinned somewhat close to the coast, keeping seabreeze-focused thunder closer to the coast near ECP and just south of TLH.

The second source of thunder will be a loose band of storms that dives in from northwest out of central Alabama and Georgia later in the afternoon and into the early evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1236 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Gentle to moderate westerly breezes over the next several days will become onshore closer to the coast each day and maximize within the seabreeze zone with significant wave heights around 2 to 3 feet. Briefly higher winds and seas are possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1236 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances again this afternoon and evening, with erratic and gusty winds possible in the vicinity of any storms. The heat will be a concern today with high temperatures in the middle 90s and heat index values ranging from 102 to 107 degrees. The seabreeze will remain pinned closer to the coast today and again on Monday. Today, elevated Northwest transport winds and seasonably high mixing heights will contribute to high dispersion away from the Gulf Coast. High dispersion is possible again on Monday and Tuesday. Drier weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday with a return of hazardous heat, with heat index across much of the region ranging from 108-112F, possibly higher than 112F from the Gulf Coast to the I-10 corridor.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1236 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Aside from drier weather on Monday and Tuesday, rainfall should be near or slightly below climatology over the next week. The main concern is is minor flooding of areas of poor drainage and there are no riverine flooding concerns.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112- 114.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.