Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 307 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Hazardous boating conditions continue with intermittent surges of fresh to moderate easterly breezes. Advisory level winds and seas remain most likely across the offshore waters 20 to 60 nm.

- Rain returns to the forecast this weekend, with the highest chances on Sunday. A few isolated thunderstorms are also possible closer to the coast. Another round of rain is expected to arrive mid to late next week.

- Unseasonably warm weather prevails for late October, early November.

SHORT TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Satellite and surface observations show upper ridging in place over the MS Valley with high pressure across the Eastern US. In addition, an area of disturbed weather is apparent from the Mexican Plateau into the Desert SW. This disturbance is expected is to translate eastward and spawn weak low pressure along or just south of the Gulf coast. Prevailing east to NE winds maintains a relatively moist along/south of the FL state line and slightly drier air to the north. Unseasonably warm, but fair weather continues today amidst thickening cloud cover from west to east. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low 80s while lows only drop into the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Halloween will be met by warm/muggy conditions and potential for passing on-off showers ahead of the aforementioned system moving in from the west. Rain chances peak in the 15-25% range. Minimal impacts are expected from this activity, but those participating outdoors may get a little wet. Therefore, it wouldn't be a bad idea for trick-or-treaters to pack an umbrella just in case.

For Sunday, a wave of greater precipitation sweeps through the region and appears to focus the most along/south of the I-10 corridor. The axis of rainfall will follow the path of a progressive weak area of low pressure that is currently forecast to track eastward across the northern Gulf coast or just offshore. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly near the coast and over the SE FL Big Bend. The latter may see an uptick in rain depending on the evolution of aforementioned Low's evolution over the NE Gulf. Thick cloud cover amidst cool NE cold-air-daming-like flow likely keeps highs in the mid 70s.

Dry conditions filter in from west to east on Monday following the Low's departure off the Atlantic. Prevailing NE winds are expected until mid next week ahead of the another progressive system from the west. Another round of rain is slated to arrive Wednesday-Thursday with better preceding moisture return as low-level winds turn more east to southeasterly. Unseasonably warm weather ultimately prevails the remainder of the long-term period - highs mostly in the low 80s and widespread lows in the 60s (isolated upper 50s).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 213 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Late-night offshore buoy observations showed sustained NE winds more consistent with cautionary than advisory level conditions. The latest forecast shows an easterly nocturnal surge fostering advisory winds across the offshore zones 20-60 nm. Therefore, the Small Craft Advisory was adjusted to show a start time at 8PM EDT/7PM CDT tonight until 2PM EDT/1PM CDT tomorrow.

Moderate to fresh northeasterly breezes today become fresh to strong tonight into tomorrow, particularly across the offshore zones 20 to 60 nautical miles. A temporary lull in advisory level conditions is anticipated Saturday afternoon before a resurgence arrives Saturday night and persists into early or midday Monday with the arrival and departure of a low-pressure system. Moderate to gentle easterly breezes return Tuesday into Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A moistening trend ramps up the next couple of days ahead of an approaching frontal system from the west. Rain chances return to the forecast Saturday afternoon & evening with mostly passing showers. By Sunday, a progressive wave of precipitation sweeps through the region, but appears to focus the most along/south of the I-10 corridor. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible near the coast and over the SE FL Big Bend. Drier conditions filter in on Monday. Northeast to easterly winds prevail.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Rain returns to the forecast this weekend and mid to late next week. The progressive nature of the systems responsible should keep amounts on the low side. Therefore, no flooding concerns are anticipated over the next several days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

TAE WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ115.

GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Saturday for GMZ770-772-775.