Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 1056 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Isolated to scattered convection can be expected across northern Utah on Monday with more isolated convection across southern Utah. Moisture will increase again by Tuesday, bringing an increased threat of flash flooding, before decreasing substantially from Thursday onward. - Hot temperatures as high as the lower 100s can be expected for the valleys of northwest Utah as well as the Uinta Basin through Monday, with highs in the upper 100s for portions of southern Utah, including Zion National Park. Overnight lows will remain in the 70s to around 80, limiting the potential for overnight relief from the heat.

DISCUSSION, Issued 1034 PM MDT Sun Jul 26 2026

High pressure remains centered over the OK/TX Panhandles and northeast NM this evening. Utah saw a slight influx of moisture today, with PWATs across southern Utah climbing to 1-1.2 inches while northern Utah remained under 1 inch. Aided by this increased moisture and a subtle vort lobe rotating around the high and lifting through Utah, increased shower and thunderstorm activity was noted today. While thunderstorms are waning with the loss of daytime heating, rain showers, generally light, will continue to spread into northern Utah tonight as the vort lobe continues to lift north, while they taper off across southern Utah. These showers will continue through the day on Monday across northern Utah, along with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Southern Utah should see generally isolated showers and thunderstorms on Monday.

By Tuesday, the high pressure will shift closer to the Four Corners region, bringing a more southerly flow to southern Utah and Arizona, which should help spread more moisture into the area and allowing for increased convective coverage. However, this renewed moisture surge will be brief, as the high will continue to gradually shift westward through the week. Towards the end of the week, the high pressure will be centered too far west to favor the monsoon pattern, leading to drier conditions. This drying trend should begin on Thursday or Friday and will likely extend through at least the first half of next week. Cluster analysis of global ensembles are in good agreement on the general large-scale evolution.

Otherwise, hot temperatures will remain in place areawide through the week, with most valley areas seeing highs hovering near or above 100F. Conditions will be exacerbated tonight through Monday with cloud cover helping to maintain warm overnight lows. Increasing precipitation midweek is expected to cool the airmass enough to reduce HeatRisk to mostly Moderate in the valleys, but when the airmass dries out again late week with strong high pressure overhead, HeatRisk will increase again, with widespread areas of Major to Extreme HeatRisk noted.

AVIATION

KSLC...The SLC terminal will see VFR conditions through the evening with cigs remaining well above 6000 ft AGL. Southerly winds are expected to shift to the northwest between 20Z and 22Z. There is a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminal this evening, with the most likely time between 02Z and 04Z. Any storms that develop would have the potential to bring gusty and erratic winds as well as a low chance of lightning.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...The airspace will see prevailing VFR conditions through the evening with generally light and terrain driven winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again expected to develop this afternoon, initially focused over the higher terrain over central and southern Utah, with these storms drifting into northern Utah and southwest Wyoming during the evening. Any storms that develop will have the potential to produce gusty and erratic winds, lightning, and brief mountain obscurations.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 411 AM MDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Monsoonal moisture lingers across the region through Wednesday, with daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms continuing as a result. Coverage will be most widespread today, then becomes more limited to eastern portions of the state Tuesday and Wednesday. Storms through this period will be capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds and isolated areas of heavy rainfall. High pressure quickly builds across the west Thursday onward, bringing a much drier airmass to the region through the weekend. This pattern will result in gradually increasing temperatures and a downtrend in relative humidity for the latter half of the week, with near-record heat and critically dry conditions developing statewide as early as Friday. Overnight humidity recoveries also become very limited especially across the western half of the state beginning Friday morning.

SLC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

UT...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ101>107-114-124- 128-130.

Extreme Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight for UTZ131.

WY...None.