Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES, Issued 954 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Deep moisture will remain across southern Utah Tuesday, with a slight risk for excessive rainfall (level 2/4) in place for much of southern Utah.

- Deep moisture will shift north and west with time through the week. A marginal risk for excessive rainfall remains in place for much of southern and eastern Utah through Friday.

DISCUSSION, Issued 954 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A relatively cool and stable airmass resides across much of northern and central Utah this evening, in the wake of a cold front which is largely stalled along a line extending from Moab to just north of Cedar City. Lingering moisture along and south of this boundary supported isolated convection earlier this afternoon, which has since shifted eastward into Colorado.

The flow aloft will back on Tuesday in response to the next upper low digging along the Pacific Northwest coastline, which will lift the frontal boundary northward, and allow moisture to return northward into southern and central Utah. This moisture return will begin as early as late tonight, with some hi-res guidance suggesting pre-dawn convection developing across southwest and south central Utah, followed by a round of afternoon and evening convection across central and southern Utah. There is a fair amount of spread across the guidance spectrum with respect to coverage and intensity of convection Tuesday afternoon/evening across central and southern Utah, however the threat for heavy rainfall will exist with any stronger/organized convection as deep layer shear increases above 20 kts.

As the upper low continues to dig south along the coast Tuesday night into Wednesday, increased forcing will bring an increase in convection as deep layer moisture spreads across the forecast area. This will persist through Thursday as the upper low begins translating east through the Great Basin, with the trough axis finally swinging through the forecast area later Friday and sweeps remaining moisture out of the area.

AVIATION

KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal through the period. Dry conditions with a few high clouds will continue. Winds will remain light and diurnally driven.

REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist for the entire airspace through the period. Mostly dry conditions with a few high clouds will continue with increasing southerly winds during the day. Convection develops across the eastern half of the airspace tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER, Issued 240 PM MDT Mon Sep 14 2026

After a cold front cooled northern Utah below normal, a warming trend will bring temperatures near to above normal for the region beginning Tuesday. Meanwhile, deep moisture in place near the 4-Corners will spread north and west with time through midweek and remain in place through the end of the week. The main impact of these storms will be very heavy rain.

SLC WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

UT...None. WY...None.