Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Upper-level heat ridge will build stronger across the region through mid to late week, maintaining daily heat headlines.

- A weak front will approach the region late this week but will struggle to make southward progress given the strength of the ridge, although it may provide some very low-end rain chances. - Medium-range guidance continues to suggest a stronger frontal boundary will arrive by next weekend, bringing more seasonable temperatures and slightly higher rain chances for most areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The dreaded upper-level ridge has begun to exert more influence on our region once again, propelling afternoon temperatures well into the 90s with a few more hours of heating yet to come. Fortunately, dew points continue to mix out slightly across much of the region so heat indices are mostly marginal so far today for meeting our heat advisory thresholds. However, it appears we will struggle to mix out this low-level moisture over the next few days while high temperatures are only expected to climb through at least mid-week. Therefore, have already extended our Heat Advisory through early Monday evening with additional extensions and possible upgrades to Extreme Heat Warning criteria on the table for later this week.

As the upper ridge amplifies a bit more over the Southern Plains, look for a gradual stair-step in terms of daily high temperatures this week with upper 90s to lower triple digits becoming the norm once again. In addition, increasing subsidence will also lead to less mixing with dew points in mid and upper 70s returning. Thus, the concern for escalating heat hazards throughout much if not all of this upcoming week. At this point, Heat Advisory conditions are a given while any upgrades to an Extreme Heat Warning remain less certain. For now, will continue to monitor daily trends to inform on future heat hazard/headline decisions through the end of this week.

As for any possible heat relief, medium-range guidance suggests we will have to wait until next weekend for that opportunity. While a weak frontal boundary will approach the region by Wednesday into Thursday, it will likely remain to our NE and only present low-end rain chances across mainly our E/NE zones late in the week. Then, a stronger front appears poised to arrive by Saturday as the upper ridge retrogrades farther west out across Four-Corners Region next weekend. This pattern shift will likely result in more seasonable temperatures for the weekend along with at least a small uptick in rain chances across the region.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Surface high pressure across the Gulf of America to maintain southerly winds across area terminals through the terminal forecast period ending 28/00Z. South winds less than 6 knots overnight to become southwest and increase to up to 10 knots on Monday, diminishing to around 6 knots after 27/20Z. Otherwise, MVFR CIGS and VSBYS may be possible across LFK near daybreak. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061- 070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014- 017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ096-097-108>112- 124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.