Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Warm and dry conditions today will give way to the return of scattered showers tonight, with a few isolated thunderstorms possible through the day and evening Halloween Saturday, before diminishing late.

- Aside from some lingering isolated showers and a few thunderstorms over portions of Southern Arkansas and North Louisiana Sunday, warm and mostly dry conditions will return through much of Monday, before a greater potential for wetting rains finally return to the region Monday night and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Extensive AC and cirrus cigs have overspread the region earlier this evening, well ahead of lead shortwave troughing that is slowly lifting NE through W and SW TX into Nrn Old MX. Forcing was adequate enough for some of these cigs to produce areas of -RA over N and ECntrl TX Wednesday afternoon, just W of our E TX counties, with the mosaic radar imagery depicting some lingering light elevated returns over these same areas attm. However, drier air evident over Srn AR/N LA continues to slowly mix W into E TX, which should continue through at least the first half of the day Friday which should maintain dry conditions over the region. However, this prolonged period of dryness which has persisted over the area for the last three and a half weeks will finally be broken as the aforementioned troughing to our WSW will lift NE through the Srn Plains this afternoon, in time as low level moisture advection begins to increase from the SE. Thus, as our current dry air mass begins to moisten, should start to see isolated -SHRA begin to develop this evening over E TX/Wrn LA, before becoming more scattered areawide overnight once large scale ascent along this trough increases. While this trough remains progged to lift NE out of the area Saturday morning, weak perturbations in the SW flow should continue to result in additional scattered convection development through the day Halloween Saturday, which may linger into the evening/overnight hours over SE OK/SW AR/N LA just in time for the trick-or- treaters. However, any convection should be intermittent, with QPF amounts expected to remain light over these area where the rains linger.

While isolated convection may linger over the Ern zones Sunday, warmafter and humid conditions are expected despite a good cu field, before upper ridging begins to build E through the Srn Plains to start November, ahead of deepening upper troughing that will traverse the Great Basin onto the Rockies/Four Corners Region Sunday night. The various medium range guidance continues to suggest a slower motion of this system as it approaches the region Monday, with much of the day dry before deep convection develops during the afternoon and evening from the Ozarks S into the Srn Plains along the leading dryline. The attendant cold front will eventually overtake this bndry Monday night or Tuesday, with deepening convection spreading into SE OK/adjacent SW AR into E TX Monday night, and across the remainder of the area Tuesday/Tuesday night. Better consistency in timing has been observed amongst the 00Z GFS/ECMWF, with the various AI and ML guidance suggesting at least a low end threat for strong to severe storms Tuesday over the region especially where better heating can occur within the very moist air mass in place, thus enhancing SBCapes. Widespread QPF's of 1-3 inches still looks probable Friday night through midweek between these two systems, before cooler/more seasonal temps and drier conditions return in wake of this deep trough/closed low passage and attendant cold front for the latter half of the new work week/first full week of November.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

High VFR ceilings to gradually lower throughout the day becoming 5kft around 31/06Z. A few showers may be possible near LFK beginning 31/00Z, increasing in coverage across all sites by 31/10Z. Otherwise, east to southeast winds 5 to 10 knots today to become light and variable after 31/00Z. /05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Issued at 103 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

SHV WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None.