Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light showers (30-70% chance) at times across portions of the area from this afternoon into Sunday. Periods of dry time accompany this system, with only light rainfall amounts.

- 15-25 mph southerly winds with gusts up to 35 mph are expected on Monday. The strongest winds will generally occur along and west of Highway 65. Very low probability (<10%) for a Wind Advisory to be issued.

- 90-95% chance for a widespread band of rain to move across the area Monday night through Tuesday. Monitoring a low-end potential for severe weather with this system.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Dry air has won the battle so far as rain has struggled to reach the ground for most of our area as dewpoints are stuck in the upper 40s to lower 50s. However, there is a light drizzle/mist occurring over SE KS early this morning, and that will eventually push east over us as the fist shortwave moves through. The air mass over us is expected to become more moist as the day goes on. So far, we've kept a 10-15% chance of rain over SE KS/far SW MO to account for the light rain early throughout the day. Showers will move in from NE OK and move northeast through southern MO. This percentage increases through the day and increases through the evening as another shortwave moves through the area. Luckily, this system isn't expected to be an all-day or an all-evening washout and there will be periods of dry time for any trick-or-treaters going out tonight. No severe weather is expected and the lightning risk is very low with these showers. Highs will be in the mid 70s with mostly cloudy skies and light southeasterly winds near 10 mph today. Low temperatures will be in the 50s tonight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Rain is forecast to end by Sunday morning with clouds mostly sticking around. High temperatures will be warm in the low to mid 70s for the day. We'll have a brief moment of mid-level high pressure over us on Sunday, but it's quickly ushered out by an incoming bowling ball of a trough. With this incoming low pressure system, we'll see gusty winds, a slight temperature drop, and the possibility of thunderstorms.

We'll start to feel the impacts of the incoming trough on Monday as southeasterly winds become gusty near 30-35 mph by late morning with the strongest gusts along and west of Highway 65. If these winds trend any higher, we'll have to watch for a Wind Advisory. Rain chances begin to increase overnight Monday into Tuesday (50-90%) with a Marginal to Slight risk of severe weather possible mostly for areas along and west of I-49 with the Slight being further west. Right now, the best severe risk appears to be over central KS, with the western CWA getting clipped. This is likely due to the base of the trough going through that area before the trough becomes elongated as it moves over us due to another incoming mid- level trough over the Great Lakes region. This northern system appears to impact our severe weather chances, so we'll have to monitor the timing and placement of these two systems to see if get more than 250 J/kg of CAPE. We still may see thunderstorms with this system, but they may not be severe. However, the rainfall accumulations are forecast to be near 1 to 2 inches across the area which will be welcomed!

The low pressure system that moves through at the beginning of the week will drop our temperatures, but only by about 10 degrees. Though, it will bring them closer to average for this time of year with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s for the rest of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Rain showers at KJLN and KBBG this afternoon will continue into this evening before becoming more scattered to isolated this evening and tonight. KSGF may occasionally see a shower, but prevalent conditions are expected to be dry.

Low level moisture will move in tonight, resulting in MVFR to IFR ceilings into Sunday.

SGF WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

KS...None. MO...None.