Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation updated.

KEY MESSAGES

Dry weather is forecast through Sunday, and likely into the middle of next week. Trending wet late next week with best chance of rain starting mid-week. Friday will be the warmest day of this week. Mild and dry for Halloween.

DISCUSSION

Dry weather will continue across the area through the remainder of month, and into early November. Surface high pressure and upper level ridging look to remain the dominant features across the area for the next several days. A dry frontal boundary looks to pass through the area overnight tonight, which will transition winds to be out of the northwest on Friday. This will cause downsloping across the Piedmont, which will lead to well above average temperatures across the area for Friday.

Cloudy conditions moving over the area from an upstream system will lead to much cooler temperatures on Saturday for Halloween and Trick or Treating festivities.

All models have officially backed off on any widespread precipitation chances for the region on Sunday/Monday of this coming week. The fetch of moisture that was initially forecast by models earlier in the week has been choked off by another surface high pressure system that is expected to park itself over the Northeast on Sunday and Monday. This system on Sunday and Monday as it approaches the area never really looks to tap into the Gulf or Atlantic moisture, which is evident in looking at IVT analysis that keep moisture transport well to our south and to our northwest. While precipitation chances have predominantly faded to only a slight chance for showers across upslope regions for this system, significant cloud cover is expected areawide, which should keep temperatures near average for this time of the year even with an upper level ridge remaining over the Southeast.

All eyes turn towards the middle to late week system, which ensemble data is in much better agreement of an amplified upper level trough digging south into the Gulf states before lifting northeast through the Mid-Atlantic states. There also appears to be strong support for a much more favorable environment for moisture to be pulled north ahead of this aforementioned upper level trough into the region from the Gulf and Atlantic. While it is still too soon to discuss specifics of this system, it will likely be the next system to provide any meaningful widespread precipitation to the region. Timing and specifics on this system are still in question.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

High pressure will remain firmly in control of the region, ensuring visual flight rules prevail throughout the forecast period. Fog looks less likely due to approaching dry front but with some clouds and possible mixing, plus models forecasting a wider dewpoint depression only have MVFR tempo IFR at LWB. Confidence is low to moderate on fog. Winds turn to the west-northwest Friday with the front.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Cloud cover will steadily increase over the weekend, though ceiling bases will hold AOA 10kft, preserving favorable VFR flight conditions through Sunday. By the middle of next week, the upper- level flow pattern will amplify significantly, spawning a sizable storm system across the central continental United States whose eventual impacts on the local region will remain to be seen.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry weather is expected through the end of the month with above normal temperatures forecast for Friday and near normal temperatures over the weekend. The next appreciable chance for rainfall looks to be the middle of next week. Models have backed off on any meaningful precipitation until then.

Friday is expected to the most favorable with respect to burning conditions, temperatures warming 10 degrees above normal. Some locations in the Piedmont may reach 80 degrees.

Northwest transport winds on Friday will lead to the best day for ventilation and mixing.

RNK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.