Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Evening aviation update.

Lowered dewpoints to match observations through tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Clouds and more seasonable temperatures return for the weekend into early next week.

2) Next chance of rain will be mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Clouds and more seasonable temperatures return for the weekend into early next week.

A large surface high has moved into the area from the Upper Midwest, while an upper-level ridge is across the Southeastern US. This combination is keeping mostly clear skies and well above normal temperatures across the area this evening. A dry cold front moved through earlier this afternoon. Behind the front, much drier air has moved in, with dew points having fallen into the 30s.

For Saturday, temperatures will return to around normal for this time of year, with highs in the 60s/70s. Clouds will also increase by tomorrow afternoon, as an inverted trough forms along the Ohio River Valley. Halloween night will be dry and seasonable, though heavy cloud cover and light winds will add to the spookiness.

High pressure will "wedge" in east of the Appalachians this weekend, but temperatures will still remain around normal due to the flow coming off of the Atlantic Ocean rather than from the Northeast. The clouds stick around through the weekend and into early next week, with temperatures remaining slightly above normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Next chance of rain will be mid to late next week.

The dry weather is expected to continue through at least Tuesday, which would be the 17th consecutive day with no rainfall across most of the area. While that is nowhere near a record, it is noteworthy. The system that was expected to impact our area early next week is expected to remain off to our south. Rain chances slightly increase on Wednesday, with a better chance on Thursday.

A large upper-level trough will dive down across the central CONUS, and move east into our area. Models are beginning to hint at the system weakening as it arrives, though confidence this far out remains low. In addition, the synoptic setup could be quite complex, as there may be an additional offshore low pressure system that could affect the approaching system from the west. Regardless, mid to late next week is likely to be the best chance of rain in the last three weeks. The system moves through and out of the area by next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR flight conditions continue across all terminals this evening after a dry cold front pushed through the area earlier this afternoon. Drier air has settled in, which will prevent any fog from forming overnight, though a few high clouds have moved in. High clouds slowly increase through the night, with cigs becoming broken by midday Saturday, though flight conditions will remain VFR with cigs remaining well over 10k feet. Cloud cover and dry weather stick around through the end of the TAF period.

Winds have begun to relax as the sun has now set, with only ROA seeing 10+ knot winds, which should back off within the next hour or two. Winds will shift to the northeast Saturday morning, though staying under 10 knots through the end of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Dry weather continues through the weekend, though cloud cover will remain heavy into early next week. However, cigs are expected to remain VFR. Aside from any patchy morning fog in the valleys, VFR persists through the middle of next week. Late Wednesday into Thursday, a large storm system will move into the area, bringing likely sub-VFR flight conditions and the best chance of rainfall in weeks.

RNK WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

VA...None. NC...None. WV...None.