Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

12Z aviation discussion update.

Trending drier for the weekend. Precipitation chances return next week, with best potential for widespread showers looking to be mid to late week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry through the weekend, then precipitation chances return to the area during the new work week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

While the majority of the area is expected to remain dry, some light drizzle could materialize over the northeast mountains as a cold front crosses the area this morning. High pressure quickly regains control behind the front and allows quiet weather to persist into the weekend.

Mild temperatures, coupled with dewpoints in the 30s to 40s, should result in minimum relative humidity values ranging from 25-35% across much of the area this afternoon, and likely Saturday afternoon as well. That being said, light winds should alleviate fire weather concerns for this week.

A shortwave approaches the area this weekend; however, the forecast has been trending drier in response to a slower eastward retreat of low-level high pressure. Some precipitation could eventually infringe upon the western half of the forecast area late Sunday into Monday, but widespread precipitation chances are more likely to hold off until an upper trough and low track into the Middle Ohio Valley mid to late week next week.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to dominate the TAF period, with gradually increasing cloud cover expected to prevent fog formation tonight and early Saturday morning.

Light winds will turn northerly as a front slides to the southeast today, then flow turns calm to light overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Brief MVFR ceilings could be possible at EKN early this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE FRI 10/30/26 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M L M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H L M M H H H H H H H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... IFR restrictions could be possible in showers at times next week.

RLX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None.