Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

* Hot and dry conditions prevail through midweek with afternoon breezes up to 20-25 mph.

* Warming trend brings highs into the triple digits by the weekend, introducing areas of Major HeatRisk for lower valleys.

DISCUSSION

Hot and dry conditions are the name of the game this week. Temperatures will slowly increase each day, with triple digits reaching the lower valleys of W NV by Wednesday. The current forecast puts 100F in Reno on Thursday, which currently has a 45% chance of occurring. Better chances occur Friday through early next week, increasing to 80-85%. With records for Reno in the 103-104 range, our chances seem slim to set any new records. Moderate HeatRisk becomes widespread by the middle of the week, with Major HeatRisk in lower valleys. Said Major HeatRisk will become wider in areal coverage by the weekend. If you're planning to be outdoors this week, make sure to wear plenty of sunscreen, stay hydrated, and take breaks in the shade.

This heat will be brought about by high pressure progressing further westward from its current position over the central United States. Latest 500 hPa models show a brief shortwave Wednesday, which may slow the rate at which our temperatures are increasing. As of now, any additional impacts from this feature have yet to be resolved.

Afternoon zephyr breezes of 20-25 mph will continue each day this week. Combined with low RH values, pockets of elevated fire weather conditions are likely. As the heat only continues, fuels will continue to dry and cure. Avoid activities that cause a spark, including dragging trailer chains, driving motorized vehicles over dry vegetation, and target shooting.

-Giralte

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevail through the week with gusts of 20-25 kts. Increasing high temperatures may introduce density altitude concerns for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV by the weekend.

-Giralte

REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories

NV...None. CA...None.