Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Moisture will start moving into the San Juans today, with some scattered showers/storms over the far SE plains in the afternoon.

- Incoming system will bring heavy rain to the San Juans and San Luis Valley. Another round of flooding is expected for these areas Sunday-Monday.

- Accumulating snow is expected this weekend over the mountains, moreso Monday-Tuesday.

- A strong cold front will arrive on the Plains Monday, with winds in excess of 40 mph. Winds could prevail into Tuesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 732 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Have cancelled the dense fog advisory, as most locations have only light fog/no fog. Still could see some very spotty visibility near 1 mile along the Arkansas River through 9 am with some patchy ground fog.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Issued at 100 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Through the rest of the overnight hours and into this morning, fog will return to the eastern plains thanks to ample low-level moisture in the region.It should mostly remain east of Pueblo County, with reduced visibility around 1-3 miles with locally denser areas possible. Remember to exercise caution when travailing. Fog will clear around 10am.

This afternoon, a weak shortwave will pass just southeast of our area aloft, bringing up precipitation from the south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into early evening, mainly right along the KS border. While there will be a bit of instability out there, around 700-1000 J/kg of CAPE, no storms in our CWA are expected to be severe. Most of the precipitation will miss our area, staying to the east of us, though a few storms may drift over the CO border.

Temperatures will be in the 50s-60s across the area today, with breezy winds mainly out of the south and increasing cloud cover.

Moving into tonight,a trough will push into western Colorado, bringing the initial wave of precipitation into our western mountains ahead of our next impactful system.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 100 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

The long-term forecast has come more into focus amongst the different model solutions, showing cooler and much more active weather into early next week.

Starting with the broader picture, two upper lows will be moving onshore, one from the Pacific Northwest and one on the southern California coast. The lows will phase with a broad upper trough, deepening and moving into our region by Sunday. Heavy rainfall will first spread over the San Juans, then to the rest of the Continental Divide and San Luis Valley prior to Monday. Some areas may see up to 2 inches or so of QPF during this timeframe, and with snow levels initially above 11 thousand feet, almost all of it should fall as rain. Flash flooding is going to be a major concern across the San Juans and portions of the San Luis Valley, especially considering how much moisture those areas have received recently. For the peaks of the mountains, again mainly above 11 kft, expect periods of moderate to heavy snowfall. Heaviest accumulations will be over the San Juans, with almost all of the recent model guidance showing well over a foot by the end of the event.

The upper low will pass overhead on Monday, dragging a deepening surface low over the plains and sending a cold front down behind it. This will spread precipitation across the plains while also bringing in some stronger winds out of the north. Meanwhile, cooler air will lower snow levels across the region, down below 9000 feet by early Monday morning before the system pushes east. Winds will be the main concern over the plains, with some models showing gusts up to 50 mph possible, along with widespread rain showers.

The system will push east of our area on Tuesday, leaving our area mild and dry with breezy north winds over the eastern plains, though less gusty than on Monday. Temperatures will remain somewhat cool towards the middle of next week, with highs dropping into the 50s, with breezy winds and decreasing cloud cover.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 510 AM MDT Fri Oct 30 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions will still be possible this morning due to areas of fog in the area. Otherwise VFR through the remainder of the period.

PUB WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Monday morning for COZ067-068.