Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the aviation discussion for increased MVFR ceilings this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather continues into the weekend

2) Minimal rain chances early next week, with higher chances by mid to late week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak cold front will continue to drop southeast across the Upper Ohio Valley region this morning, though no rain is expected with a lack of deep layer moisture. The main impact of this front will be increased cloud cover along the front, with scattered stratocu in cold advection through the afternoon. Highs today should also be around 10 degrees below Thursday's readings.

Dry weather is then expected to continue through the weekend as surface high pressure builds across the region. Mid and high level clouds should gradually increase through this period ahead of an approaching shortwave trough across the Midwest. Temperatures should moderate again by Sunday, with readings around 10 degrees above average.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A weakening trough is expected to track slowly east across the Upper Ohio Valley region Sunday night into Monday. A lack of moisture should be the main limiting factor on seeing any rain with this system, though slight chances POPs were maintained. Model ensembles indicate ridging will then build across the Upper Ohio Valley region through early Wednesday, ahead of a deepening central CONUS trough. This should maintain dry weather and warm temperatures across the area. Rain chances are expected to begin to increase by mid to late week as the trough slowly approaches the region, though uncertainty remains in the strength and forward speed of the trough.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A cold front will continue to cross the region from N-S early this morning. The main impact is expected to be a band of stratocu clouds, with VFR cigs. Enough low level moisture after FROPA has resulted in patchy MVFR cigs. Included a TEMPO mention of these cigs, including PIT. Clouds should gradually scatter out by mid morning, with a scattered cumulus/stratocu layer through the rest of the day in cold advection and NW flow. A wind shift from the SW to NW is expected with FROPA, with speeds around 10 kt by mid morning. Wind should diminish this evening as high pressure builds in.

Outlook... Outside of any early morning river valley fog on Saturday, VFR is expected into early next week. A disturbance will likely bring an increase in mid level clouds Sunday night and Monday, with only a slight chance of rain.

PBZ WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

PA...None. OH...None. WV...None.