Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 559 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Rain chances continue today and into Saturday. Highest rain totals western and northern OK.

- Additional rain/storm chances Sunday night into early next week, some severe storms possible Monday.

- Near to above normal temperatures persist into early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to move across the area today. The zone of best large scale ascent will be focused along western Oklahoma and western north Texas, which is where we can also expect consistent coverage of showers through the evening hours. 12Z ROAB from OUN showed a very deep and saturated profile, which contributed to a precipitable water (PWAT) value of 1.58 inches. This value beats the daily max record of 1.52 inches. That being said, any stronger showers that develop will have the potential to produce rainfall rates of 0.5-1.0 inches per hour.

The aforementioned lift will move off to the northeast gradually through the overnight hours. Cloud cover will stick around this evening, so expect temperatures to be in the 50s for most of the area.

Bunker

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Another shortwave trough will move through the southern Plains on Saturday, which will help fuel continuous rain chances through most of Saturday. This wave will move off to the east by Saturday night, so expecting rain chances to decrease from west to east through the day Saturday.

Dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the weekend. With lingering cloud cover, temperatures Saturday will be in the 60s, with a slight uptick in afternoon highs on Sunday into the 70s.

Bunker

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 131 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Monday, our attention quickly turns to a more robust storm system taking shape across the southwest as two storm systems, one in the southern branch and one in the northern branch approach from the west. Although some timing issues remain, there looks to be sufficient moisture and temperature profiles(1000-1500 CAPE) and somewhat favorable winds fields(better wrt both fields in the 12Z ECMWF) that severe weather would be possible. Although the storm system moves quickly, there could be some heavy rainfall with this activity as well. Currently the more widespread heavy rainfall looks to occur across eastern Oklahoma and from the Ozarks into northeast Texas Monday night and Tuesday.

As the wave moves by, an associated cold front will sweep south across the area bringing gusty north winds and cooler temperatures for Tuesday with some lingering showers possible. After highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s Monday, highs will be in the 60s and lower 70s Tuesday.

By Tuesday night the system develops a closed low across the Ozarks region and then slowly shifts east through Thursday. This will maintain a northerly wind across Oklahoma and north Texas through Wednesday and potentially into Thursday before shifting back to the south. This will keep temperatures from rebounding with highs remaining in the 60s and lower 70s through the end of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Two main waves of rain can be seen on radar across the area right now. The first is in northern and northwest Oklahoma moving northward. Reductions in ceiling below 1,500 are occurring and will continue until that wave moves north into Kansas. Another wave of showers and lighter rain is in western north Texas and moving northward. It looks like skies will generally remain VFR with this wave though we could see ceilings start to drop after the sun goes down. More widespread MVFR ceilings are expected after daybreak tomorrow morning, alone with lingering showers near I-35.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...None. TX...None.