Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 959 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Hot and humid conditions through at least Friday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon across the western Oklahoma, western north Texas, and portions of central Oklahoma.

- Chance of showers and thunderstorms across northwestern Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. But no significant relief from the drought for most areas.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

The fire weather environment continues to be the primary concern this afternoon into the early evening. Although humidity is not as low as some typical fire weather events, the gusty winds and dry fuels still are creating elevated fire weather conditions.

Although the wind speed will decrease somewhat around sunset, the development of a 40-50 knot low-level jet this evening will still create gustiness through the evening and overnight, especially across western and northern Oklahoma where the wind speeds with the low-level jet are the highest. Humidity will recover tonight but the winds may still contribute to fire spread with ongoing wildfires.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Even though the upper ridge axis remains to the east, heights and thicknesses increase on Tuesday as the ridge amplifies. The 594 dm 500 mb contour builds back over the area on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a cold front is progged to move into southern Kansas and the projected placement of the front looks to line up northern and possibly central Oklahoma to the pre-frontal compressional warming. So with these two factors, hotter temperatures are expected on Tuesday.

There is consistent signal of a shortwave moving from the Land of Enchantment toward the northern panhandles and northwest Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon. This is expected to aid in thunderstorm development near the cold front in northwest Oklahoma on Tuesday afternoon and persist into the evening before the shortwave shifts northeast and precipitation potential decreases. There will be some potential for strong or isolated severe storms Tuesday afternoon/evening and SPC has created a Marginal Risk for severe storms across northwest Oklahoma.

Have issued a Heat Advisory again for Tuesday across southeastern Oklahoma, but there is a decent chance that the Advisory will need to be expanded with a future package, especially across northern Oklahoma, dependent on how early precipitation is expected to develop in the northwest and how far east any cloudiness spreads in association with the approaching shortwave.

Even if the cold front moves into northern Oklahoma late Tuesday, the front will retreat north on Wednesday morning and yet another hot day is expected.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

There is high confidence that above-normal temperatures will persist through at least Friday, reinforced by bias-corrected probabilistic guidance indicating that even the 10th percentile remains above normal during this period. Global deterministic models and their ensemble members are in strong agreement that the subtropical ridge will remain the primary influence on our weather.

Ensemble spread increases among the global models and their ensemble members by the weekend into next week (September 19-21), which indicates the potential for a pattern change. There is a chance the subtropical ridge will break down as a mid-level trough digs across the Plains, driving a cold front southward into the Southern Plains.

Sunday currently appears to be the most probable timeframe for the cold front passage. That said, deterministic and ensemble guidance over the past couple days has shown a distinct trend toward a slower frontal timing. Probabilistic guidance highlights this forecast uncertainty, indicating a 20 to 75% probability of maximum temperatures remaining below 90 deg F on Sunday (20% southeast to 75% north). The cooler end of guidance reflects a low to moderate probability (5% southeast to 40% north) of high temperatures staying below 80 deg F. Nevertheless, a reasonable chance persists for high temperatures to top at least 90 deg F (25% north to 80% southeast) should the frontal timing continue to slow down. The first day of fall is Tuesday, September 22, so perhaps we'll see a timely front sometime by then.

Mahale

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue into the day on Tuesday. Low level wind shear is possible overnight, mostly across northern Oklahoma. Wind gusts will increase by mid morning through late afternoon tomorrow as winds also veer to south or south-southwest. Showers and storms are possible late Tuesday afternoon into the evening, potentially impacting KWWR where PROB30 has been added for this period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ032-043-047- 048-051-052.

TX...None.