Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 139 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

- Very hot and humid conditions continue this week with less hot conditions next weekend.

- Very low rain/storm chances (less than 10%) return on Tuesday night and continue through Thursday; a slight increase in chances (to 15 to 30%) exist on Thursday night.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The heat maxima for today is still expected over northwest and northern Oklahoma, where an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for peak temperatures near 110 and heat indices neat 112. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the remainder of the area for temperatures/heat indices up to 109.

Dewpoint temperatures continue to trend downward compared to recent days, and with values in the 50's across western Oklahoma this afternoon. Across central Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas, dewpoint temperatures will hover in the mid- to upper-60's.

Tonight, expect mostly clear skies with south winds and low temperatures in the 70's.

Thompson

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Although temperatures will trend slightly downward in the short term, the heat remains a concern with heat indices up to 109. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire FA for Tuesday and will likely be needed for Wednesday. A shortwave rotating around the ridge could push a weak backdoor front could slide into portions of northern Oklahoma late Tuesday afternoon or evening, and offers a meager chance (less than 10 percent) of showers and thunderstorms for a sliver of north-central Oklahoma by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Very low rain chances also exist on Wednesday night over northern Oklahoma ahead of another embedded shortwave trough.

Thompson

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

The ridge will continue to meander westward into the desert southwest by this weekend. This will bring a pattern change aloft and stronger shortwaves and northwesterly flow aloft. A front is still progged to move south across the area Friday, which will bring a chance for "cooler" temperatures this weekend. By cooler, this means a break from the triple digit heat and widespread Heat Advisories across much of the forecast area with near normal temperatures for the start of August (mid to upper 90s). There is also a chance that precipitation could accompany the frontal passage Friday, but these chances remain fairly low at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions continue with many locations unlikely to see a cloud in the sky over the next 24 hours. Main aviation concern will be the slackening of the breeze tonight before a shift back to south-southwest and increase in the morning.

Meister

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OUN WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

OK...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004>013- 018>020-026.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004>048- 050>052.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ014>017-021>025- 027>048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ083>090.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.