Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. Only some adjustments made to the small craft advisories currently in place.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The chance of some scattered thunderstorms capable of producing localized brief heavy rainfall today, mainly for eastern portions of the area.

2) There is a high risk of rip currents for ocean beaches through Thursday (see marine section below).

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1... With the area still in a humid air mass today, there will remain the chance of scattered thunderstorm activity. However, unlike yesterday there will be less forcing in place. Thus, activity should be a lot less widespread. Also, the relatively higher PWATs will align across eastern / southeastern portions of the area. As the cold front draws closer this afternoon scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will attempt to initiate. The CAMs aren't overly bullish with their reflectivity forecasts, however there is enough guidance suggestive that some activity initiates. Any thunderstorms would produce locally heavy rain and potentially some strong wind gusts. An axis of instability is also progged to extend into SE portions of the area with CAPE values around 1000-1500 j/kg. The front is not expected to clear the region until sometime this evening, and may move a bit slower than currently indicated on WPC progs. Therefore carry chance and slight chance PoPs for eastern portions of the area until 00z this evening. Any impacts from any storms is expected to be less than yesterday, and should be mainly of the localized minor variety with the forward speed of any convection expected to be somewhat faster than yesterday. By later tonight into Thursday morning as the cold front gets further east drier and less humid air will slowly begin to filter in from the north and west.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A cold front passes through this afternoon into early evening.

MVFR/VFR becoming VFR this morning. A chance of TSTMS and MVFR this afternoon mainly east of the city terminals.

SW winds 10-15kt with gusts around 20kt. Winds veer west late this afternoon, then NW this evening as they diminish and lose gusts.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty

Low chance of a thunderstorm with MVFR from approx 18/19z through 21/22z.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Thursday - Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

Small craft conditions are expected for the south shore bays into most of this afternoon. Small craft conditions should persist until early Thursday morning on the ocean waters with seas remaining elevated and lingering at or close to 5 ft Thursday morning. Otherwise sub advisory conditions prevail into the day Thursday through the weekend as high pressure settles over the waters before weakening and pushing offshore towards Sunday.

Rip Currents: A high rip current risk remains in place through Thursday. Some areas could come close to high surf criteria, mainly for today. At this time it appears that surf heights will fall just short of surf advisory criteria with the swell direction becomes less orthogonal to the coastline by the time the swell height and period increase, thus limiting the threat of high surf conditions.

OKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for NYZ075-080- 081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350-353- 355.