Area Forecast Discussion

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation section.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost-Freeze conditions likely outside of NYC/NJ metro Saturday Night into Sunday AM. Otherwise, dry and increasingly mild conditions for early to mid next week.

2) The Next chance of a wetting rain late next week.

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1...

The driest stretch of the year so far persists for the next several days in response to confluent NW upper flow this weekend, giving way to east coast upper ridging thru midweek. At the surface, modified Canadian high pressure builds overhead through this weekend, and then gradually offshore through midweek.

CAA on gusty NW winds (25-35 mph) into the first half of tonight, subsiding through Saturday morning. Sunny, dry and seasonably chilly airmass for this weekend. Saturday will be slightly cooler than Sunday, with highs generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Widespread frost conditions likely, scattered freeze conditions possible, across eastern LI, southern CT and southern Westchester county Saturday night/early Sunday under good radiational cooling conditions. The one caveat will be the northeastward progression of a cirrus deck associated with shearing central US shortwave, and to a lesser extent upper jet streak aloft and a weak northern stream shortwave moving through northern New England. Although frost-freeze conditions are expected across areas to the north of this, the frost-freeze program has already ended for these interior areas. The frost-freeze program will end for Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Southern Westchester, Coastal Connecticut, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Union the morning of Sunday November 1.

Gradually moderating conditions for early next week as heights rise aloft and high pressure slides offshore with return SW flow. High temps incrementally rising through the 60s each day, with overnight lows rising from in the 30s and 40s Sunday morning to 40s and 50s by Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2

General NWP/AI model agreement in NW PAC troughing slowly moving southeastward across the CONUS through the early-mid next week, approaching the middle eastern US late week. Considerable spread on the particulars of the trough as it moves towards the east coast late week (whether it remains influenced by the northern stream and approaches as a closed low towards the NE/Mid Atlantic US East coast or detaches from northern stream and drifts across the SE US). At least a low potential for a frontal system or low pressure system to affect the area late in the week with a wetting rainfall, but inherently low predictability on details this far out.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High pressure builds in from the west through the period.

VFR.

NW winds around 10 kt or less overnight through the remainder of the forecast period.

NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Saturday Night: VFR. NW winds around less than 10 kt.

Sunday through Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

MARINE

NW flow gusts around 30 kt for all waters into first half of tonight. Winds will gradually subsides late tonight into Saturday as high pressure build in for the weekend.

Sub-SCA conditions then expected on all waters Saturday through Wednesday.

OKX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ331-332- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.