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000 FXUS64 KOHX 302316 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 616 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026...New AVIATION...KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 612 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
- Low rain chances for trick-or-treating Saturday evening with medium to high rain chances starting around midnight Saturday and lasting through Sunday.
- Another medium to high chance for rain middle of next week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1110 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
High pressure will keep our wx quiet the rest of today through daytime Saturday. The main feature will be thickening mid and high level clouds. Those clouds will hold temperatures up tonight, so lows will be mainly in the 50s instead of the chilly 40s we have had the past couple of weeks. Saturday will be another warm day in spite of the clouds. Highs will be mostly in the 70s.
By late Saturday, the high pressure will break down as a low pressure wave with deep moisture approaches from the west. We remain optimistic about the outlook for Halloween with most of the area staying dry through Saturday evening. There could be some light drops moving into our southwest counties by dark, but the bulk of the incoming rain will fall after midnight Saturday night, and especially Sunday morning and midday. Temperatures for trick- or-treat will stat in the lower 70s, falling through the 60s.
The incoming system does look particularly strong, so no severe storms are expected, but there may be a few rumbles. Rainfall amounts are expected to be less than 1 inch, so we will not experience much drought relief. The higher totals will fall over the west half. Unfortunately for the east half, and especially Plateau, rainfall amounts from this weekend system may be very light.
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1110 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
Rain will taper off Sunday evening with dry and mild weather returning for Monday and most of Tuesday.
Another low pressure system will approach by midweek. This one will be larger, stronger, and slower moving, so rainfall totals are expected to be greater. Thankfully instability is unimpressive, so we are not worried about severe storms. Most of the midweek rain is expected to fall on Wednesday with a soaking rainfall event expected. NBM shows a 60-70% chance for at least an inch, and a 25-35% chance of some locations picking up closer to two inches.
Dry and mild weather is expected by Friday, lasting through next weekend.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026
VFR conditions will persist for this TAF cycle with light easterly winds overnight and a bit of a southeasterly breeze Saturday afternoon. Gust of 15-20 kts possible. Rains look to arrive at our mid-state terminals after 06Z/Sun with lower cats closer to 12Z/Sun.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
| Temperatures | Chance of Precipitation | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Location | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day | Tonight | Tomorrow | Tomorrow night | Next day |
| Nashville | 58 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 60% | 80% |
| Clarksville | 58 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 70% | 80% |
| Crossville | 53 ℉ | 72 ℉ | 51 ℉ | 62 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 20% | 50% |
| Columbia | 57 ℉ | 79 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 60% | 80% |
| Cookeville | 57 ℉ | 76 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 30% | 50% |
| Jamestown | 53 ℉ | 75 ℉ | 54 ℉ | 65 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 10% | 40% |
| Lawrenceburg | 57 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 53 ℉ | 64 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 50% | 80% |
| Murfreesboro | 57 ℉ | 80 ℉ | 55 ℉ | 66 ℉ | 0% | 0% | 50% | 70% |
| Waverly | 60 ℉ | 77 ℉ | 56 ℉ | 63 ℉ | 0% | 10% | 70% | 80% |
OHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES
None.
SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION.....Unger