Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Dangerous heat is in the forecast through Tuesday. A Heat Advisory has been issued for most areas west of the Plateau where heat index values will top out near 110 each day.

- Along with the usual hit and miss thunderstorms of summer days, there could be a couple of bands of strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and local flash flooding. The first of these bands may move south out of Kentucky late tonight. There is a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms.

- After Tuesday, near normal temperatures with more tolerable humidity levels will be in place through the rest of the week.

SHORT TERM

(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

There are 2 main concerns through Tuesday: heat and storms.

A Heat Advisory was issued for our far western counties starting this afternoon, then expanding across most areas west of the Plateau starting Monday morning. The advisory will last until 8 PM Tuesday. The hot ridge over the Rockies and High Plains will bulge eastward, giving areas west of the Plateau highs in the mid 90s with heat index values well over 100. This results in Heat Risk levels reaching Major Risk level (3 out of 4). Although atmospheric moisture has decreased since yesterday with precipitable water values dropping below 2 inches, near surface moisture remains high with dew points in the 70s. Dew points can be expected to remain high through Tuesday and those PW values will climb again giving fuel for storms with heavy rainfall.

So what are the details on storms? First of all, in this hot, steamy environment with some residual boundaries, we cannot rule out some storms any time, especially in the heat of the afternoon and evening. But, models are continuing to indicate an overnight MCS for tonight into early Monday morning. There are inconsistencies with track and intensity, but that is typical of this pattern. We know that very moist and unstable conditions will be present into the late night hours, so any storms that dive down from KY will have the potential to produce damaging winds and localized flash flooding. At this time, we are under a level 2 out of 5 severe risk north of I-40 with a level 1 out of 5 to the south. It would be wise to monitor updates through the evening and be prepared for possible severe storms in the overnight hours.

Along with locally developing scattered storms, we cannot rule out another big storm cluster later Monday. Basically, we need to be watching to our north northwest through the next 48 hours. As we wrap up Tuesday, we will see a medium to high chance for storms ahead of a cold front. This Tuesday evening frontal passage will turn off the storms and drop temperatures to normal levels for the rest of the week.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Confidence is growing that we will enjoy a frontal passage Tuesday evening, allowing drier and cooler air to spread into the Mid State. This will bring an end to the excessive heat, and also suppress rain chances for the remainder of the week. Near normal temperatures are likely to last through next weekend, while rain and storm chances look to increase by next weekend as a low pressure system tracks along the Gulf Coast and spreads deeper moisture into Middle Tennessee.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the evening hours. Models are favoring the idea of a complex of storms moving through the area from north to south overnight which would impact the terminals. Confidence is highest for CKV where a tempo group was included. PROB30 groups were included at the other terminals. Behind the complex, VFR conditions will prevail. Winds will be WNW/NW through the overnight hours at around 5 kts. If a terminal is impacted by storms overnight, northerly winds may gust above 30 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

OHX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ005-006-023>025- 056>058-093-094.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TNZ007>009-026>030-059>062-075-095.