Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat continues for the southern two-thirds of the area Monday as slightly cooler air begins to work in from the north.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible, mostly between 6pm and 11pm. Damaging winds are the primary threat.

- Warm temperatures continue through the week, although they'll be closer to seasonal norms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

As of 1:30pm, the coolest heat index in the CWA is the 108 reading at Wayne, NE. Most temps are in the mid-90s with dewpoints generally in the upper 70s. It is hot and it is humid.

Models are converging on a solution that brings an MCS through the area this evening from about Yankton and fizzling out around I-80. The RAP and the HRRR are still keeping things mostly dry. Consider the severe threat tonight to be conditional, meaning if storms are able to develop, they should be able to grow volatile. Whether they develop or not is not certain (60%). It'll be hard to produce hail with temps as warm as they are, but shear and instability magnitudes suggest organized development is possible. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with decreasing severity as the storms push southeast. By the time they push through the Fremont/Omaha areas, they should begin to weaken... if they are to develop at all. Tornadoes can be all but ruled out. Expect dry conditions by 5am as remaining action should be in Missouri by then.

MONDAY

500 hPa heights don't change much for Monday and with sunny skies forecast, there will be little to prevent temps from matching today's pinnacles over the southern half of the forecast area. A cold front sliding south has other plans for the northern collection of Nebraskan counties. The front should have passed through Norfolk by noon. This will leave that area and points north and west of there both a bit cooler and noticeably less humid. Heat indices will peak near the century mark up north while 115 is still possible in the Omaha metro and points southeast of there.

TUESDAY

Rain and thunderstorm chances have slipped for Tuesday, now at about 15% maximum on the western periphery of the CWA. A shortwave and monsoonal moisture rounding the upper ridge may produce some storms in western or central Nebraska, but latest guidance keeps the action on the horizon for those closer to the Missouri River.

High temps under mostly/partly cloudy skies should peak near 90F, near 1991-2020 normal highs.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

Temps remain hot through the week with the upper ridge continuing to spin anti-cyclonically over the Desert Southwest through next weekend. Monsoonal moisture and shortwaves rounding the ridge will bring occasional chances of showers and thunderstorms. Confidence has grown in precip for Thursday (60-70%) as 12Z global models bring a shortwave through the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 554 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions are favored through the forecast period. Southerly winds gusts will continue at 12-14 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, gradually calming under 12 kts into the overnight period. LLWS is expected to work into KOMA and KLNK from 27/06-12Z as 40-45 kt southwesterly winds work in around FL015. A front pushing southward across the area through Monday morning and afternoon will shift winds to northeasterly.

A strong to severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out across northeast Nebraska this evening (27/00-04Z), with isolated wind gusts up to 60 kts and patchy MVFR conditions possible. Storms are expected to remain north of the terminals, with a 20% chance of impacts at KOFK. Amendments will be made if needed.

OAX WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for NEZ011-012- 015>018-030>034-042>045. Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ030-034- 042>045. Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ052-053. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for NEZ050- 051-065>068-078-088>093. Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 PM CDT Monday for NEZ050-051-065>068-078-088>093. IA...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 AM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-056. Heat Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Monday for IAZ043-055-056. Extreme Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Monday for IAZ069-079-080- 090-091.