Area Forecast Discussion

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

- Breezy onshore winds expected each afternoon and evening through early in the week

- Gradual warming starting midweek, with increasing Moderate HeatRisk for interior locations heading into the weekend

- Elevated fire weather threat across the Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges this week

- Hazardous beach conditions at the Pacific Coast with an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents thru mid-week

SHORT TERM

Issued at 145 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026 (This evening through Monday night)

Coastal stratus continues to gradually wane and the feed of clouds across Marin and the greater Bay Area will diminish through mid to late afternoon. Unlike the past few days, there's more stratus across the coastal zones and this may signal a better developed marine layer. 24 hour RH and temperature departures also indicate a more noteworthy marine influence, especially along the immediate coastline. However, areas across the interior portions of the North Bay, East Bay, and Central Coast, temperatures are 2-5 degrees above where they were this time yesterday with RH 5 to 15 percent lower as well. This will serve to elevate the fire weather threat, this afternoon particularly in some of the wind corridors, gaps, and passes (e.g., Altamont Pass, southern Salinas Valley).

While tonight will see a better push of the stratus inland, the overall depth of the marine layer is expected to remain between 1000-1500 feet. This will mean that some of the higher elevations stay parched with RH recovery under 50 percent. More specifics are available in the fire weather section below. Visibility reductions may also be more of a possibility along the coast as the marine layer compresses and provides a more favorable hydrolapse for fog. Locations that are inland, but near bodies of water (lakes, river, streams), may also stand a greater chance of mist/fog, resulting in potential hazardous driving conditions for the Monday morning commute.

Fog, clouds, and stratus should mix out through the day on Monday. High temperatures on Monday will be 1-2 degrees greater than today (Sunday), especially if the marine stratus fails to materialize or dissipates quicker than currently anticipated. Highs are will range in the mid/upper 60s along the coast to 70s and 80s across the urban corridors. Portions of the Santa Lucia and Diablo Ranges stand the greatest chance to exceed temperatures above 100 degrees. The fire weather threat will remain elevated during the afternoon with the breezy, dry, and warm conditions across interior North Bay, East Bay, and the central Coast.

LONG TERM

Issued at 145 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026 (Tuesday through next Saturday)

A gradual warming trend is anticipated mid-week and into next weekend. There are indications that heat will be impactful, especially for interior regions. There are some caveats, however. Overall the synoptic scale pattern will be such that high pressure will build in from the Pacific Southwest with broad troughing across the Pacific Northwest. As ridging builds, we'll see temperatures slowly tick upward areawide. Taking a look at the range of possibilities using K-Means clustering as well as internal model spread tools indicates a couple of very plausible scenarios with regard to the position of the aforementioned synoptic scale features. The placement of these features will dictate just how hot areas get (or how cool they stay).

For the first scenario, just over half of the 100 member multi- model ensemble suggest that a couple of reinforcing upper troughs will swing through the Pacific Northwest through the middle to end of next week. This scenario would slow or limit the expansion of the ridge westward and would keep our region more influenced by the marine environment and cooler. This would translate to more in the way of "Minor" to low-end "Moderate" Heatrisk. While still impactful, this would relegate heat impacts to extremely sensitive individuals such as the very young, elderly, and those with little to no access to adequate cooling or hydration.

Alternatively, the second scenario, just under half of the multi- model ensemble, suggest more diffuse upper troughs across the Pacific Northwest, with the Pacific Southwest ridge expanding farther west. A farther west ridge would be more efficient at suppressing the marine layer and in fact, some deterministic NWP does imply offshore flow (largely across the Central Coast) which would support higher end MaxT temperatures late this upcoming week and into next weekend. Subsequently, more widespread "Moderate" with even a potential for pockets of "Major" Heatrisks would be more probable in this scenario. This level of heat has the potential to impact even those that are not necessarily sensitive to the heat.

So what's the actual forecast? The current forecast leans more on the higher scenario as it's in lockstep with the larger global model guidance that has been highlighting the potential for impactful heat for the last 1-2 weeks. In addition, 850mb temperatures (which typically prove to be useful for MaxT forecasting) are approaching the 90th percentile for late July and into early August. With these factors in mind, MaxT were adjusted leaning more toward the higher end (but not going all end) of the guidance envelope. While the details of exactly how hot it will get are to be ironed out over the next several days, it's important to stress that individuals will still need to practice their heat safety protocols, especially those not near the coast. These protocols include hydrate with plenty of water, taking frequent breaks in the shade or A/C (where applicable) and shifting outdoor activities to the cooler time of day. Also, never leave kids or pets in vehicles unattended.

In addition, if headed to the beach, please be sure to check conditions and NEVER turn your back on the ocean as there will be an increased threat for sneaker waves and rip currents. There have been reports of weather rescues at some popular beaches and the potential will increase as more individuals head to the beach with the warmer stretch of weather anticipated.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

The marine stratus should clear out of most terminals by 19-20Z, except for HAF where IFR ceilings will linger until about 21Z. Moderate onshore breezes persist through the day and ease overnight. The marine layer pattern continues again this TAF period with an expected depth around 1200 feet. Low confidence on whether APC, LVK, and SJC will develop MVFR ceilings overnight as stratus continues to remain patchy offshore. Left it as scattered cloud decks for now, but if the marine layer is more organized tonight, they may roll in at those respective times. Given the trend from the previous nights, STS may experience river valley fog again overnight though confidence is low on exactly how impactful and persistent it will be.

Vicinity of SFO...A steady feed of IFR ceilings may persist until 19- 20Z. VFR thereafter with moderate westerly breezes (~15 kt) increasing to fresh (~18 kt) with embedded gusts around 30 kt through the afternoon. Moderate confidence on low-end MVFR ceilings around 10Z Monday given the deeper marine layer and persistent onshore flow. Conditions should transition to VFR around 19Z Monday.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR prevails through the afternoon with moderate onshore breezes. Onshore winds ease overnight as stratus moves inland bringing IFR ceilings at both MRY and SNS. Moderate confidence on exact timing of the stratus. MRY may experience low- end IFR meanwhile SNS may be closer to BKN008-010.

MARINE

(Today through Friday) Issued at 914 AM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Fresh northwest breezes gradually increase to strong by Tuesday with occasional gale force gusts. However, frequent gale force gusts are expected along Big Sur. In response, moderate seas gradually build to rough by Wednesday. Distant tropical cyclone activity in the East Pacific continues to send long period southerly swells to our coastal waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Increased breezes, while onshore, when combined with critically dry afternoon RH through the week will translate to an elevated fire weather threat. This threat will persist through mid-week and potentially into the latter half of the week and into the weekend. The most likely region for starts and fire spread will be across the interior Central Coast where Energy Release Components (ERC) are projected to climb above the 95th percentile. While morning RH recovery will moderate some through the week, the shallow marine layer will equate to generally poor overnight recovery for elevations at or above 2,000 feet through Wednesday morning. This will be particularly true across the Mayacamas, highest peaks of the East Bay Hills, the Diablo Range, Santa Cruz Mountains, Santa Lucia and Gabilan Ranges. Nocturnal drying (rapid decrease in RH through the pre-danw hours) may also transpire which will increase the burn period or time in which fire behavior may not diminish. Individuals across the area are advised to avoid activities that may spark a fire. Fire crews are urged to exercise extra caution when executing any prescribed burns, especially where fuels, topography, and weather align.

BEACHES

Issued at 145 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific will continue to generate 18-20 second (long-period) southwesterly swell which has reached the coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. As such, sneaker waves and strong rip currents are the primary concerns. However, breaking waves can reach up to 10 feet along some south and southwest facing beaches and break points (like Santa Cruz, Pacifica, and parts of Stinson or Ocean Beach). This can be particularly surprising when wave heights increase suddenly after a period of seemingly tranquil wave action. In fact, sneaker waves can have 20+ minutes in between the larger sets (breaking waves) with significant "flat/calm looking" times between them. Due to the long period, sneaker waves are powerful and can catch beachgoers by surprise and can result in people and pets being swept into the cold, turbulent ocean. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Check conditions before you head out! Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Never turn your back to the ocean and if you have small children or pets at the beach, please keep an eye on them. Hazardous beach conditions are anticipated to persist through Wednesday afternoon.

MTR WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES

CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.